I remember back in 2021, Max Scherzer had to be pushed back in the NLCS because he closed out Game 5 of the NLDS, and this year Chris Sale was brought out to close out Game 3 of the Wild Card series. Normally he pitches on 5 days rest, but Tuesday will be 4 days rest for him from Game 3 of the NLDS. However, 21 pitches isn't a lot. Just how much of an impact does it really have?

I built a model that gives the chance a player matches or beats his season the following year. It weighs the season against his underlying talent, and against how much next seasons have scattered around talent since 2015.

Before the 2026 numbers, here's how its calls on last season held up, across all 445 players with enough playing time in both 2025 and 2026:

So when it said 1 in 6, it was 1 in 6. On Brier score, these 2025 calls beat a flat guess by 23% (19% for hitters, 18% for starters, 31% for relievers).

These 2025 calls are a backtest: the model was fitted without the 2025 seasons, so it never saw 2026, but I didn't publish them at the time. This winter's numbers are the first real test.

Here's the top of this winter's free agent class, with each player's 2025 call, whether he matched 2025, and his chance to match 2026 in 2027.

Hitters

Starters

Relievers

Notes:

• "Matched" means at least as good by wOBA (wOBA allowed for pitchers), which is what the model judges, so OPS can disagree slightly. *Bednar's OPS allowed dipped from .567 to .563, but his wOBA allowed rose, so he counts as No.
• "–" means not enough playing time in 2025 for a call (Bauers had 218 PA).
• A low chance isn't a knock on the player. It means 2026 ran ahead of his underlying numbers. A high one can mean 2026 was below them: Peralta's 75% is a chance to match a down year.
• Free agents only; players with options or opt-outs come after those decisions.

Who's the buyer-beware in this class, and who's the bargain?

22 years old, incredible post season results, clutch hitter. Let’s say the brewers go insane and win the thing. Who is a HOF comparison to Jackson Chourio?
I can’t think of any.. he’s great at everything, not a HOF at anything yet but I hope that makes sense.

From the article:

Before Game 1 of the National League Division Series -- an eventual 3-2 Brewers victory -- Erickson and Padres manager Craig Stammen spoke with the umpiring crew about the ballpark’s ground rules. At the end of their discussion, home-plate ump Nick Mahrley clarified what would happen if a ball were to hit the cables attached to the roof.
A day later, the FS1 broadcast showed some remarkably prescient footage of the meeting.
“If it hits fair,” Mahrley says, “wherever it comes down, whatever happens, that’s what we’ve got.”

To which Stammen even asked for a clarification:
“It can be caught?” he said.
“Yes,” another of the umpires responded.

It was at that point that Erickson chimed in:
“I haven’t seen that here in six years,” he said. “So it’ll happen tonight.”

3 IP

0 H

0 R

0 BB

3 Ks

2011 NLDS Game 5 against the Diamondbacks (Nyjer Morgan)

2018 NLDS Game 1 against the Rockies (Mike Moustakas)

2026 NLDS Game 2 against the Padres (Jackson Chourio)

Pages earned a walk in his 81st plate appearance, giving 2nd place back to Bing Miller at 72. Bill Buckner is the all time leader at 101 plate appearances without a walk

FanGraphs search here with data from before tonight's game

It doesn’t prove anything, but rarely do you see such similar stats as the ball that Ty France hit that engendered so much controversy after hitting the roof of Miller Park (fight me on the name) and a ball Austin Riley just hit at UNIQLO field.

Both balls were hit by righties almost directly towards the left field foul pole.

France: 105.3 EV, 49* Launch Angle, 325 feet
Riley: 104.8 EV, 47* Launch Angle, 314 feet

Only longer on-base streaks in PS history:

2011-13 Miguel Cabrera: 31

2007-09 Chase Utley: 27

2022-24 Juan Soto: 25 *active

2017-19 Jose Altuve: 25

2012-14 Pablo Sandoval: 25

1966-71 Boog Powell: 25