I am a researcher at major company working on frontier AI, I was bored + being a redbull fan I wanted to see how season would evolve.

My understanding of race could be of question at times which would look like model failure but this is what I would predict an the season.

I’ve been building a model for the remaining 2026 F1 season.

I started with current standings, recent form and development trajectory, but the more I worked on it, the more obvious it became that points-per-race extrapolation doesn't really work in F1.

A team's points are the end result of several different systems interacting:

Car performance → Driver extraction → Driver/car compatibility → Circuit characteristics and familiarity → Development → Strategy → Operational execution → Reliability/incidents → Finishing order → Points

So I expanded the model to all 22 cars.

The goal isn't just to predict the final standings. I wanted to understand how the season gets from where it is today to the final result, what causes that trajectory, and what observations over the next seven races would prove the model wrong.

CURRENT STATE AFTER SEPANG

Constructors:

1. Mercedes — 556
2. Ferrari — 405
3. McLaren — 316
4. Red Bull — 298
5. Racing Bulls — 90
6. Alpine — 68
7. Haas — 27
8. Audi — 17
9. Williams — 12
10. Aston Martin — 7
11. Cadillac — 0

Drivers at the front:

1. Antonelli — 320
2. Russell — 236
3. Hamilton — 214
4. Leclerc — 191
5. Norris — 188
6. Verstappen — 188
7. Piastri — 128
8. Hadjar — 96
9. Lawson — 65
10. Gasly — 41
11. Lindblad — 38

There are seven Grands Prix remaining, with Singapore also being the final Sprint weekend.

WHAT THE MODEL ACTUALLY LOOKS AT

I didn't want variables like "Mercedes is good" or "Ferrari fumbles".

I separated the underlying components.

For every team, I estimate:

• Underlying car performance
• Development trajectory
• Performance across different circuit types
• Driver pairing
• Driver/car compatibility
• Strategy quality
• Strategy variance
• Operational execution
• Reliability

For every driver:

• Raw pace / extraction
• Qualifying
• Racecraft
• Consistency
• Tyre and race management
• Compatibility with the car
• Circuit familiarity
• Adaptation to upgrades
• Current learning/development rate

Most importantly, all 22 cars compete simultaneously.

There aren't 11 independent point generators.

There is only one P1, one P2 and ten points-paying positions.

If Hadjar moves from P6 to P3, he doesn't merely gain points. Everyone between P3 and P6 gets pushed backwards.

If Alonso extracts P7 from the Aston Martin, somebody else loses those points.

This point redistribution is particularly important when projecting the constructors championship.

TEAM BENCHMARK

My current composite team ranking looks roughly like this:

1. Mercedes Strengths: car, drivers, strategy, execution Weakness: no obvious structural weakness

2. Red Bull Strengths: driver extraction, strategy, execution, improving car Weakness: accumulated deficit from the earlier car

3. McLaren Strengths: balanced package, strong drivers Weakness: slightly below the current front-running ceiling

4. Ferrari Strengths: elite drivers, strong underlying package Weakness: strategy/execution conversion and variance

5. Racing Bulls Strengths: improving drivers, useful car Weakness: absolute performance ceiling

Then comes the much tighter midfield group of Williams, Alpine, Audi, Haas, Aston Martin and Cadillac.

Mercedes is interesting because I don't necessarily have them massively ahead in every individual category.

Their advantage is that they currently have almost no obvious weak link.

Great car. Antonelli + Russell. Strong strategy. Strong operational execution. Good reliability. Good driver/car compatibility.

That creates relentless points accumulation.

STRATEGY NEEDED TO BE ITS OWN VARIABLE

This was something I added later.

Bad result does not automatically mean bad strategy.

An engine failure isn't strategy.

A four-second pit stop is execution.

Getting hit by another driver is an incident.

Choosing the wrong tyre is strategy.

Stopping six laps too late is strategy.

Missing a Safety Car opportunity is strategy.

So strategy and operational execution are separate.

Strategy includes:

• Tyre selection
• Pit-window timing
• Undercut/overcut decisions
• Safety Car/VSC decisions
• Weather adaptation
• Two-car coordination

Execution includes:

• Pit stops
• Communication
• Release
• Procedural execution

I also model strategy variance rather than only average strategy quality.

A team that makes excellent calls most weekends but occasionally destroys a race is different from a slightly less aggressive team that almost never throws points away.

My current strategy ranking/prior is approximately:

Red Bull — elite strategy, low variance Mercedes — elite strategy, low variance McLaren — strong strategy, medium variance Aston Martin — good strategy, medium variance Racing Bulls — good strategy, medium variance Williams — good strategy, medium variance Alpine — average-good Audi — average-good Haas — average, somewhat higher variance Ferrari — below what its car/driver combination should be converting, high variance Cadillac — still uncertain

These are model priors, not official statistics.

Eventually I want to replace them with a race-by-race Strategy Value Added calculation: given everything the team knew at the moment it made a decision, how many expected championship points did that decision gain or lose?

DRIVER BENCHMARK

The top of my current composite driver model is roughly:

Verstappen — elite extraction, racecraft, consistency and familiarity; almost no remaining familiarity learning

Hamilton — elite extraction, racecraft and experience; almost completely saturated familiarity

Leclerc — elite raw pace/extraction; very high qualifying ceiling

Alonso — elite extraction and enormous circuit knowledge

Russell — very high extraction, qualifying and consistency

Antonelli — already very high performance with one of the largest remaining learning rates

Norris — very high extraction and qualifying; relatively mature learning curve

Piastri — very high baseline with meaningful remaining improvement

Hadjar — high extraction already, but one of the largest remaining learning rates

The important distinction is:

CURRENT ABILITY and RATE OF IMPROVEMENT are not the same variable.

Max can currently be the strongest driver while having almost no circuit-familiarity improvement remaining.

Hadjar can currently be weaker while improving much faster.

CIRCUIT FAMILIARITY

This became much more important than I initially expected.

Think about Verstappen arriving at Silverstone, Suzuka, Austin or Brazil.

He has driven these places repeatedly.

Braking references, kerbs, camber, elevation changes, corner sequences and overtaking geometry are deeply embedded.

Friday isn't primarily about learning the track anymore.

It is parameter estimation around an extremely strong prior.

A sophomore has a different problem.

On his first F1 visit, some mental bandwidth is still being spent understanding the circuit in an F1 car.

On his second visit, that map already exists.

The question changes from:

"How do I drive this circuit?"

to:

"How do I make THIS car work at this circuit?"

That's a much smaller problem.

So I separately model:

Accumulated circuit familiarity

and

Remaining familiarity improvement.

The highest remaining learning/familiarity rates in my model are roughly:

Lindblad Hadjar Antonelli

Then:

Bearman Bortoleto Colapinto

Then:

Piastri Lawson

Veterans like Verstappen, Hamilton and Alonso are effectively near saturation.

YEAR-ON-YEAR IMPROVEMENT

I also didn't want to simply assume every young driver gets better.

I looked at year-on-year relationships where a useful benchmark exists.

Antonelli gives probably the cleanest example because he stayed at Mercedes and Russell remained his teammate.

His relationship to Russell has changed massively from his rookie season.

Bearman has also improved relative to Ocon.

Colapinto has narrowed his deficit to Gasly.

Bortoleto is a useful counterexample because the same magnitude of improvement isn't obvious relative to Hulkenberg.

So there isn't a generic:

"Second season = +X"

coefficient.

Every driver gets a different learning curve.

THE RED BULL ANALYSIS

This is probably the deepest part of the model.

Red Bull's season looks like two different regimes.

Earlier:

Excellent driver + Excellent strategy/execution + Car below the required level

Now:

Excellent driver + Excellent strategy/execution + Increasingly competitive car

That creates a nonlinear change in points.

Small improvements near the front are enormously valuable because F1 points aren't linear.

P3 gives 15.

P2 gives 18.

P1 gives 25.

Moving from P3 to P2 gains 3 points.

Moving from P2 to P1 gains another 7.

So gaining another tenth when you're fighting P8 is not equivalent to gaining another tenth when you're fighting for pole.

MAX IS THE SIMPLE PART

Max is already extremely close to the extraction ceiling.

When Red Bull adds usable performance, I expect him to access most of it almost immediately.

Therefore Max's remaining-season performance is primarily driven by:

"How good is the Red Bull?"

rather than:

"Can Max learn how to extract it?"

His driver-learning derivative is basically tiny.

His car-performance derivative isn't.

HADJAR IS MUCH MORE INTERESTING

Hadjar has two positive curves moving simultaneously.

Curve 1:

Red Bull improves.

Curve 2:

Hadjar improves at extracting the Red Bull.

And there's a third smaller effect:

Hadjar is returning to circuits with previous F1 experience.

This means Hadjar's performance can improve faster than the car itself.

If the car gets 0.1s faster, that doesn't necessarily mean Hadjar simply becomes 0.1s faster.

He may simultaneously extract a larger percentage of the available performance.

MAX VS HADJAR ALSO TELLS US SOMETHING ABOUT UPGRADES

I treat Max as something like a fast-response sensor for Red Bull development.

If an upgrade genuinely moves the performance ceiling, Max is likely to expose it almost immediately.

Hadjar may respond immediately or require additional sessions/weekends.

So I look at relationships like:

Max improves + Hadjar improves immediately = probably broadly accessible car improvement.

Max improves + Hadjar follows one or two races later = likely real car improvement plus Hadjar adaptation lag.

Max improves + Hadjar doesn't = potentially difficult-to-access or Max-specific improvement.

Neither improves = upgrade probably didn't meaningfully move the frontier.

Hadjar closes on Max without Max getting faster = probably driver learning rather than car development.

THE CORRELATIONS I CARE ABOUT

I track several relationships.

2025 circuit extraction vs 2026 circuit extraction: Does a driver's circuit-specific strength persist year-on-year?

Previous visits vs year-on-year improvement: How much does familiarity actually matter?

Car improvement vs driver improvement: When the car gets better, does that driver successfully access the new performance?

Max improvement vs Hadjar improvement in the same race: How immediately accessible is Red Bull development?

Max improvement vs Hadjar improvement one race later: Is there an adaptation lag?

Max improvement vs Hadjar improvement two races later: Is the adaptation lag longer?

Strategy quality vs points conversion: How efficiently does theoretical pace become championship points?

Championship pressure vs strategy variance: Do teams become more error-prone as title pressure increases?

For Hadjar, one of the most important questions is:

When Max reveals that additional performance exists in the Red Bull, how long does it take Hadjar to find it?

If Hadjar's strongest correlation with Max's improvement is one race later, that's useful information.

If it's two races later, that's useful too.

It gives us an empirical adaptation lag.

RED BULL'S DEVELOPMENT DIRECTION ALSO MATTERS

This part is more speculative, so I treat it as a hypothesis.

If Max and Hadjar broadly prefer the same car characteristics, Red Bull gets another advantage.

Instead of:

Upgrade helps Driver A but hurts Driver B

you can have:

Upgrade helps Max AND Upgrade helps Hadjar.

That makes development much easier.

And this is extremely important for the constructors championship.

Max winning races by himself isn't necessarily enough to recover 107 points from Ferrari.

Max AND Hadjar consistently finishing ahead of Ferrari cars potentially is.

NOW THE ACTUAL SEASON PROJECTION

CONSTRUCTORS:

Current, after Sepang:

Mercedes 556 Ferrari 405 McLaren 316 Red Bull 298

After Singapore:

Mercedes 600 Ferrari 435 Red Bull 347 McLaren 340

After Austin:

Mercedes 632 Ferrari 458 Red Bull 386 McLaren 358

After Mexico:

Mercedes 664 Ferrari 480 Red Bull 425 McLaren 376

After Brazil:

Mercedes 696 Ferrari 501 Red Bull 465 McLaren 394

After Las Vegas:

Mercedes 728 Ferrari 521 Red Bull 505 McLaren 412

After Qatar:

Mercedes 760 Ferrari 548 Red Bull 544 McLaren 430

Final after Abu Dhabi:

1. Mercedes — approximately 790

2. Red Bull — approximately 583

3. Ferrari — approximately 573

4. McLaren — approximately 458

WATCH THE RED BULL/FERRARI GAP

Ferrari lead after Sepang:

107 points.

Projected after Singapore:

After Austin:

After Mexico:

After Brazil:

After Las Vegas:

After Qatar:

After Abu Dhabi:

Red Bull ahead by approximately 10.

So this isn't a prediction that Red Bull suddenly destroys Ferrari.

It's a prediction that Red Bull repeatedly takes roughly 15-20 points out of the deficit until the championship converges in the final two races.

I would NOT call Red Bull P2 a high-confidence prediction.

A 10-point projected final margin is tiny.

One DNF changes it.

One strategy disaster changes it.

One Hadjar podium changes it.

If Hadjar's learning curve is overestimated, Ferrari probably finishes P2.

If Ferrari improves its strategy conversion, Ferrari probably finishes P2.

If Red Bull's recent car performance doesn't transfer across different circuit types, Ferrari probably finishes P2.

This is basically the most sensitive prediction in the model.

DRIVERS CHAMPIONSHIP EVOLUTION

Current:

Antonelli 320 Russell 236 Hamilton 214 Verstappen 188

After Singapore:

Antonelli 346 Russell 254 Hamilton 230 Verstappen 217

After Austin:

Antonelli 364 Russell 268 Hamilton 245 Verstappen 240

After Mexico:

Antonelli 382 Russell 282 Verstappen 263 Hamilton 260

After Brazil:

Antonelli 400 Russell 296 Verstappen 287 Hamilton 275

After Las Vegas:

Antonelli 418 Verstappen 311 Russell 310 Hamilton 290

After Qatar:

Antonelli 436 Verstappen 334 Russell 324 Hamilton 304

Final after Abu Dhabi:

1. Antonelli — approximately 452

2. Verstappen — approximately 356

3. Russell — approximately 338

4. Hamilton — approximately 318

5. Leclerc — approximately 270

6. Norris — approximately 267

7. Hadjar — approximately 217

8. Piastri — approximately 191

ANTONELLI'S CHAMPIONSHIP

Antonelli's situation is fundamentally defensive.

He doesn't need to dominate the remaining races.

He has:

A huge accumulated lead.

Probably the strongest overall team package.

A very strong car.

Strong strategy.

And he's still improving as a driver.

The most plausible way this championship becomes seriously unstable isn't simply Verstappen or Russell being faster.

It's a cluster of Mercedes reliability problems or DNFs.

Without that, the lead is simply enormous.

MAX VS RUSSELL

This is much more interesting.

Max starts 48 points behind Russell.

The projected deficit evolves approximately like this:

Now:

Russell +48

Singapore:

Russell +37

Austin:

Russell +28

Mexico:

Russell +19

Brazil:

Russell +9

Las Vegas:

Max +1

Qatar:

Max +10

Abu Dhabi:

Max +18

So my central model has Max catching Russell around Las Vegas.

Why?

Not because Max suddenly improves as a driver.

His driver variable is basically already saturated.

It's:

Red Bull car performance improving

Max immediately extracting that performance

Red Bull's strong strategy/execution

Much higher points conversion.

HAMILTON

Hamilton is interesting for a different reason.

The model still rates his individual performance extremely highly.

His limitation is more Ferrari's total conversion than his own ceiling.

So Hamilton's route to P3 isn't necessarily:

"Hamilton suddenly needs to become much faster."

It's:

"Ferrari needs to convert its available performance better."

If Ferrari suddenly starts executing weekends at Mercedes/Red Bull levels, Hamilton's P3 probability increases significantly.

HADJAR IS THE CONSTRUCTORS WILDCARD

This is probably my favourite result from the model.

The most important driver for whether Red Bull catches Ferrari might not be Verstappen.

We already approximately know what Max will do with a competitive Red Bull.

The uncertainty is Hadjar.

If Hadjar remains a P6-P8 level finisher in the package:

Ferrari probably survives.

If he progressively becomes a P4-P6 finisher:

Red Bull has a serious chance.

If he starts regularly entering P3-P5 territory:

Ferrari has a very large problem.

Because Hadjar isn't just gaining Red Bull points.

He's taking points away from Ferrari.

That makes his championship impact larger than his own points gain.

FINAL CONSTRUCTORS PREDICTION

1. Mercedes — ~790

2. Red Bull — ~583

3. Ferrari — ~573

4. McLaren — ~458

5. Racing Bulls — ~121

6. Alpine — ~87

7. Haas — ~40

8. Audi — ~29

9. Williams — ~22

10. Aston Martin — ~17

11. Cadillac — ~4

FINAL DRIVERS PREDICTION

1. Antonelli — ~452

2. Verstappen — ~356

3. Russell — ~338

4. Hamilton — ~318

5. Leclerc — ~270

6. Norris — ~267

7. Hadjar — ~217

8. Piastri — ~191

WHAT WOULD PROVE THE MODEL WRONG?

This is the part I'll actually be watching.

1. RED BULL PORTABILITY

If the recent Red Bull improvement doesn't transfer across different track types, both the Max comeback and constructors P2 prediction weaken immediately.

1. HADJAR CONVERGENCE

If Hadjar's extraction stops improving, Ferrari probably keeps P2.

1. HADJAR ADAPTATION LAG

When Max finds additional car performance, does Hadjar reproduce it immediately, one weekend later, or two weekends later?

1. FERRARI STRATEGY

If Ferrari begins consistently converting its underlying pace into optimal results, the Red Bull comeback becomes much harder.

1. MERCEDES RELIABILITY

This is probably the largest tail risk to Antonelli's championship.

1. RUSSELL CONVERSION

If Russell continues matching Max's remaining points rate, Max simply runs out of races.

1. ANTONELLI'S SECOND-YEAR CURVE

If the enormous year-on-year improvement persists across the remaining returning circuits, the WDC becomes even harder to overturn.

So the model's story isn't simply:

"Red Bull is fast now."

It's:

Mercedes begins with the strongest complete system and an enormous accumulated advantage.

Red Bull begins with a huge deficit, but several variables are now moving in the same direction:

Car performance ↑

Hadjar extraction ↑

Hadjar circuit familiarity ↑

Two-driver scoring potential ↑

while:

Max extraction is already near its ceiling

and:

Red Bull strategy/execution is already strong.

That combination can create a rapidly improving two-car points machine.

Ferrari has enough car.

Ferrari has enough driver.

The question is whether it converts those ingredients into enough actual points to defend the 107-point advantage it already accumulated.

So my current call is:

WDC — ANTONELLI

WDC P2 — VERSTAPPEN

WDC P3 — RUSSELL

WCC — MERCEDES

WCC P2 — RED BULL, but effectively a toss-up with Ferrari

Max catches Russell around Las Vegas.

Red Bull catches Ferrari around Qatar/Abu Dhabi.

And the single driver with the greatest ability to decide whether the Red Bull constructors comeback actually happens probably isn't Max Verstappen.

It's Isack Hadjar.

I made a similar post about a month ago, and now I think the dynamics changed a bit. We can hopeful for the next year. Also, with the engine regs(energy split) changing in 27 and then again in 28, will RBR get chances to modify or change the engine, or is it locked for now?

The Older Post: https://www.reddit.com/r/RedBullRacing/s/sJxs5Tsxf4

Hi everyone!  I’m looking to purchase the Spark 1:18 Aston Martin Vantage AMR GT3 EVO #33 – Verstappen.com Racing, 24H Spa 2025.

Preferably brand new / mint condition with the original box and packaging.

If anyone has one available and is willing to sell, please PM me with your asking price and location. I’m based in Singapore. 

Thanks! 

Red Bull’s RB22 looks like F1’s form car, but Baku and Sepang rewarded different strengths as Max Verstappen exploited its improved setup potential.

https://gp-news.net/why-red-bulls-baku-and-sepang-pace-came-from-different-technical-strengths/

Does this win and the great result last week tell us that his ICE is actually great after all?
So the ADUO results were right for not giving the option to Red Bull to upgrade their ICE?

Ok so a bit ago I pre ordered and received my Max Verstappen 1:4 scale 24h Nürburgring 2026 Helmet. The other day I got an email from Verstappen.com saying about pre ordering the Max Verstappen 2026 GT3 Helmet - 1:4 Scale.

Am I missing something here? Is there any difference between the helmets?

I've got most of his other helmets and I don't want to miss the GT3 if it's different.

I am very happy that we got finally our first win this season it was a Hard season until now but we did it😊🥰