r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods Slava Ukraini • Sep 04 '26
Israel/Palestine /r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #22)
If you see any newsworthy information from a major news outlet or live broadcast, feel free to share a brief summary as a top-level comment in the discussion post.
Other redditors will appreciate if you include the source of where you read, saw, or heard the information.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1h ago
Saudi-Backed Yemeni Government Declares War Against Houthis
The Saudi-backed government of Yemen on Sunday announced a major military campaign against the Houthi militia, a key Iranian ally, plunging the Middle East deeper into war.
More than 200 U.S. intelligence and military analysts are assisting the Saudi government in command centers inside the kingdom, helping to analyze and select targets in support of its Yemeni allies, according to one current and one former U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The United States is also providing aerial refueling for Saudi warplanes conducting defensive air patrols, they added.
In a televised speech, Rashad al-Alimi, the leader of the internationally recognized Yemeni government — which depends heavily on Saudi Arabia for financial and military support — said that his armed forces were seeking to reclaim the territory lost to the Houthis over the past 12 years.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/world/middleeast/houthis-oil-attack-saudi-arabia-yemen.html
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u/Ancient_Mud_2841 42m ago
In a post on X, Brigadier General Majid Abdullah Al-Nuzaili said the attacks, using warplanes, drones, missiles, rockets, artillery and snipers, took place in the provinces of Saada, al-Jawf, Taiz and the country’s coast. He claimed some 1,747 Houthi fighters were killed.
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u/AntitheistArchangel 2h ago
Reuters is saying Middle Eastern oil flows exceeded prewar levels four out of seven days last week according to shipping data.
Reuters attributed the numbers to Kpler, who said on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, Middle Eastern oil flows ranged from 19.5 to 22.5 million bpd.
The seven-day average now sits at 18.5 million bpd, compared to 18 million bpd pre-war. The oil crisis is over, folks. Iran, you lost.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 2h ago
Even Iraq is claiming today it shipped 2m barrels past Hormuz on VLCC as a first in decades.
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u/HoustonHous 2h ago
Is the prewar output includes Irans output? If so, do they say who is supplying more vs. Prewar?
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u/AntitheistArchangel 2h ago
Kpler is saying Iranian exports are at zero. The recovery in flows has been uneven, however, with most of the increased flows coming from Saudi Arabia.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 2h ago
Italy willing to boost Red Sea naval mission if Europe matches commitment
Italy is willing to increase its contribution to the EU's naval mission to protect shipping in the Red Sea, but only if other European countries are prepared to step up, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto told The National in an exclusive interview in Rome.
Mr Crosetto also said Italy had responded to Saudi Arabia’s request for assistance during the war in the Middle East, sending radars, anti-missile batteries and other assets to help the kingdom defend itself against Iranian attacks and later against those by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas affirmed last month that the bloc’s Aspides mission would need to boost its numbers to more than 10 warships. And this week, she said two countries had indicated interest in sending ships to the Red Sea to counter strikes by the Iran-aligned Houthis.
“We are one of the countries that believed in the Aspides mission from the very beginning, and one of the few countries in Europe that, from the outset, deployed ships to the Aspides mission,” explained Mr Crosetto.
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u/joshtaco 4h ago
Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei: Iran’s top leadership has not discussed the return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to the country
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u/joshtaco 7h ago
Trump Truth Social post: "The Polls have ALWAYS underestimated MAGA. They try to suppress the Vote, but I won all 7 Swing States, the Popular Vote, 86% of Counties, and 99% of Primaries this year. I AM ON THE BALLOT! President DONALD J. TRUMP
From Dick Morris: “Since November of 2025 in monthly polls by McLaughlin, your job approval rating has always been between 47 and 50 percent. I have never seen anything like that in fifty years of polling. Almost every politician sees his numbers rise and fall each month but not you. You won the election in 2024 with 49.8 percent of the popular vote and the latest McLaughlin Poll, taken this month, has your job approval at 49% - the exact same as your vote share. No other political figure has ever had this level of consistency in his ratings. Through the Iran War and gas price rises and falls, your job approval is the same. It never changes. And 49% is enough to win - look at how that level of vote won in 2024! In the same Mclaughlin Poll, the generic ballot is 50-48 Democrat. That is also enough to keep the House Republican. Past history indicates that anything less than a four point margin for Democrats likely points to a Republican House victory. And almost all polls are showing Republican gains in the generic ballot.”"
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u/OnlyRise9816 4h ago
I can understand posting Trump tweets when they are about the Iran war, the Middle East, or connected geopolitical and economic issues. But is it REALLY necessary to subject us to every single one of his conspiracy laden bouts of verbal diarrhea? Especially when it's just about Stateside US shit?
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u/joshtaco 4h ago
He is literally referencing the Iran War
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u/OnlyRise9816 4h ago
Just because Trump says the words "Iran" doesn't actually mean he's got anything worth saying, or repeating. Nothing in this screed had ANY actual info about Iran or the war, just Trump gaslighting folk that "it wasn;t a big deal."
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u/MaxwellsDaemon 7h ago
U.S. Rushes to Withdraw Bombers From U.K. Air Base After New Threats (NYTimes gift article)
The withdrawal came with unusual speed, following what U.S. officials said were threats of an Iran-based plot against the installation.
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u/ResortMain780 9h ago
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 60NM south of Al Mukha, Yemen. The Company Security Officer reported a tanker sighting multiple explosions in close proximity to the vessel. The crew are reported as safe and no environmental impact has been reported.
(probably a Saudi tanker being attacked by Ansarallah).
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 11h ago
Current Reporting from Yemen:
Ansarullah forces have captured the al-Ahad al-Shou'bah junction just north of al-A'lum on Road 2050, therefore cutting the final PLC supply route to Ta'izz.
Ta’izz is now completely besieged, leaving only mountain passes open for a PLC withdrawal, a route that would force its troops to abandon their heavy equipment.
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u/socialistrob 10h ago
Ansarullah
And for those unaware this is another name for the Houthis. Ta'izz is a relatively large city in SW Yemen which would be a crucial launching off point for a counter offensive aimed at liberating the coastal city of Mocha from Houthi control or would be a launching point for future Houthi advances toward the coastal city of Aden which is the Yemeni "government's" base of operations.
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u/141_1337 9h ago
Why we putting government on quotations?
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u/combatwombat- 3h ago
There are people here that desperately want to treat the houthis like a legitimate government rather than a violent islamist slaver minority.
Oppressing more people than ever = legitimacy in their sick minds
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u/socialistrob 8h ago
Because they only control a fraction of the population and even outside of the Houthi areas not all the various anti Houthi factions are loyal to that "government." On paper they're the government but the extent to which they can actually implement things varies dramatically by where you are in Yemen and it's been like that for years.
If the Houthis are going to be pushed back it will likely be with a large coalition of tribes and actors and with a lot of external military support. That doesn't mean it's not a real government but the picture is messy.
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u/EducationalCicada 8h ago
If government-controlled areas contain less than a quarter of the population, quotation marks are warranted.
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u/141_1337 3h ago
There is such thing as a government in exile, so idk what you trying to get at with "controlling more people = legitimacy " that shit wasn't true even in the 1800s
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 9h ago
Third largest city in Yemen. The Taiz Governate(the region, which includes Mocha) is the most populous region with around 4.5 million people. Just PLC mobilization efforts alone are going to be seriously hampered losing that much population.
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u/socialistrob 8h ago
The population as well as the heavy weapons and equipment and trained personnel. It doesn't seem like the US, Saudi Arabia or Israel are going to be providing extensive heavy weapons to the various anti Houthi factions. Sure Saudi air support is nice but sometimes you just really need armored vehicles and artillery.
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u/ResortMain780 8h ago
Are the Saudis even providing close air support? Ive only seen reports of them bombing Sanaa
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u/socialistrob 8h ago
It wouldn't surprise me if the Saudis aren't providing close air support. That involves a lot of real time communication with forces on the ground and that's pretty hard with your own troops not to mention the added challenges of working with a patchwork of militias who look largely the same from the sky as the Houthis.
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u/ResortMain780 11h ago
From MES:
Ansarallah announces that any PLC fighter in Taizz that voluntarily surrenders his weapons will be allowed to return to his home governorate safely and unhindered, in accordance with Islamic Law
Ansarallah will open a humanitarian corridor to allow aid into Taizz and allow those who want to leave the city the opportunity to do so
Only those not carrying weapons or military vehicles (technicals, heavy trucks, etc.) will be allowed to exit.
This has already been agreed & will soon be implemented after mutual understandings were reached.
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u/jphamlore 10h ago
They're collecting quite a collection of weapons and other support vehicles from routing supposed government forces.
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u/IsTom 10h ago
After years of following russian invasion, this is suprisingly level-headed in comparison.
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u/Larcye 9h ago edited 8h ago
They don't want to waste any resources fighting for Taizz when they can better use them to take Aden and make any counterattack extremely hard. That and showing that they are actually reasonable goes a long way to make the PLC fighters in other areas surrender without a fight.
Historically murdering every one of your enemies who can't really fight back is a terrible thing to do if you don't want to deal with your enemies fighting you to the death every single time afterwards.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 11h ago
Mehrs - US viewpoints about Iran's proposal under study: Dep. FM
Outlining the latest state of negotiations between Iran and the United States, the Deputy Foreign Minister stated that the "seven-day proposal" previously detailed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in New York had been conveyed to the American side via mediators, and that the U.S. had subsequently provided its response on the proposal.
Speaking to reporters in Tehran on Sunday on the sidelines of the memorial service for Seyed Abbas Araghchi’s late sister, who passed away recently, Gharibabadi explained about the Iranian proposal.
He added that these views are currently being reviewed domestically, and once the Islamic Republic of Iran’s final stance is ready, it will be announced through appropriate channels.
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 11h ago
Middle East Spectator — MES Telegram
The pro-Emirati ‘Southern Giants Brigades’ have intercepted convoys of the Islah Party forces (Saudi-backed Islamist forces part of the PLC) that fled Taizz
They demand that they return to Taizz Governorate to fight the Houthis, or surrender their weapons to the Southern Giants Brigades.
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u/141_1337 11h ago
What the fuck are the UAE doing?
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u/0x476c6f776965 10h ago
The UAE is no longer involved in Yemen, the Southern Brigades were the best hope Yemen had to free itself from the Houthis. But Saudis kvetching about UAE gaining influence in Yemen caused tensions and the UAE is in hands-off mode right now.
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 12h ago
Middle East Spectator — MES Telegram
Map of the Taizz front, Yemen, as of 2 hours ago:
– Ansarallah captured Safiya junction, cutting off the Taizz–Aden road.
– Ansarallah captured Al-Samsarah, another key point on the Taizz–Aden road.
– Ansarallah captured Souq Al-Markaz (the Central Market) and Al-Aza’ez.
– Ansarallah control the heights of Al-Zakirah, Maqarmah, etc.
– Ansarallah have liberated the vital town of Al-Turbah, southern Taizz Governorate
Turbah is the second largest city in the Governorate and lies on the Taizz–Aden road.
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u/Veastli 11h ago
If this continues, MBS may soon need his pretaorean guard.
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u/jphamlore 10h ago
I was watching a video that claimed the Saudi military is on purpose divided into two competing factions precisely to prevent the military from overthrowing the government.
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u/staythewaters 8h ago
This is how the Iranian state is organized. IRGC competes with the Artesh, etc.
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u/Rensku 12h ago
Are there any other big roads between Taizz and Aden?
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 11h ago
Nothing big, just little dirt roads snaking through the mountains. Not getting any big trucks through.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
AJE: Yemen’s Houthis say they have attacked a major oil facility in Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles and drones.
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u/itsatumbleweed 1d ago
Last I saw they hit ARAMCO facilities in Riyadh and Yanbu. This front is popping off pretty bigly
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Trump: “We have a decision that I’ll make about Iran."
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
IEA: Says member countries have so far released 325 million barrels of oil and oil-derivative products from their strategic reserves out of the 400 million barrels promised in March.
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 1d ago
Middle East Spectator — MES Telegram
Further Confirmation from earlier Reporting:
Taizz front map, Turbah direction:
Ansarallah have captured Al-Masahin, Al-Muqarmah heights, and Al-Zakirah
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u/FrostPDP 1d ago
Per Mark Chadbourn:
Two oil tankers which had switched off their tracking systems have “exploded” in the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC-linked Fars News reports.
(It's Fars, so grains and grains of salt and all that.)
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 1d ago
Five Indian nationals were rescued after a Kuwait-flagged tanker was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, the Indian mission in Oman said on Saturday. The Indian embassy said it coordinated the rescue of the five Indians on board the MT Kazimah III, with all of them safely shifted ashore.
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u/DarkPriestScorpius 1d ago
Current OpenSource Twitter Reports from Yemen:
Ansarullah forces have made large-scale advances over the past 24 hours south of At Turbah, southern Ta'izz direction, southern Yemen. Most of the gains came in just the past two-three hours.
The al-Houthi forces have captured most of the Bani Omar heights, Jabal Jirdad, Jabal Rasin, Bani Muhammad, al-Ja'asha, and Az Za'azi'. PLC sources confirm their presence in Az Zakariyah, just 5.3km southwest of At Turbah.
Ansarullah forces have captured Jabal Muqarmah, southern Ta'izz direction, southern Yemen.
Saudi airstrikes on Az Za'azi' and Az Zakariyah, south of At Turbah, southern Ta'izz direction, essentially confirming their fall to the al-Houthi forces.
Initial reports, PLC forces are launching desperate counterattacks in Az Zakirah, south of At Turbah, southern Ta'izz direction.
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 2d ago
02 Oct 2026 2142UTC
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 4nm east of Oman. The Master of a crude oil tanker has reported being struck by an unknown projectile on the port side. All crew are reported as safe and no environmental impact reported at present time.
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u/141_1337 2d ago
Per OSINTTechnical:
Saudi Arabia is planning an major ground offensive against the Houthis to attempt to retake territory lost in recent months -Reuters
More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could participate, aided by the Saudi Air Force.
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u/OnlyRise9816 2d ago
Considering the EXTREME problem Yemen has with "Ghost Soldier" lists, I would be incredibly surprised if it even has a fraction of that number, much less any of that number ready and willing to fight for more than just the immediate vicinity of their own villages or tribal group area's. And the Saudi's themselves just functionally can not make a military that will ever be more than a Palace Guard, at least not under the current governing system.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
a military that will ever be more than a Palace Guard,
To be fair, if SA doesnt come to an agreement with the houthis soon, a palace guard might be exactly what MBS needs most.
Ive never thought much of MBS, but its hard to overstate how dumb he is being now. Its not hard to end this war. The houthi demands today are exactly the same as they were a few years ago, which SA was willing to agree to then, before losing Mokkah, the islands in the strait, before the east/west pipeline was destroyed, before Taiz was basically encircled.
Its not like the houthis are demanding Mecca. They are still only asking for SA to end the blockade and a fair share of yemens oil revenue. Thats it
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u/Boann_ 10h ago
The East-West pipeline is still operational last time I checked. You're also kind of downplaying the Houthi demands by saying that they just want oil revenue. Yemen currently has two rival central banks. There is the original legitimate central bank controlled by the internationally recognized government and was moved to Aden when Sanaa fell. There is also the Houthi established and controlled central bank in Sanaa.
The Houthi central bank is much stronger domestically in Yemen (since the Houthis banned currency printed by the Aden one), but has no real international power because it isn't recognized. If the Saudis agreed to split oil revenue, it would have to go through the Houthi central bank, which would legitimize it, and likely collapse the Aden one (because it would lose it's remaining purpose). The Houthis also do not allow monitors on their central bank so the revenue would almost certainly go to militants and weapons.
If the Aden bank collapses, you might also get an expansion in civil war rather than a contraction because it would put immense pressure on the anti-Houthi coalition which is basically held together with glue and popsicle sticks (they all hate each other). So it's a demand that sounds simple, but has immense potential to worsen the situation in a number of ways
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u/Wise_Preference609 2d ago
How are the Saudi backed mercenaries going around the town of Taiz. Some recent reports suggest that the Houthi forces have cut off the main supply route from Aden. That wouldn't be good. If these forces get encircled will they fight to the death for their Saudi backers, or quietly slip away, or even worse surrender.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
Last I heard, the road was only briefly held by the houthis after saudi backed mercenaries ran way, but the houthis havent yet consolidated and the road is still contested.
or even worse surrender.
Or switch sides. The houthis have been pretty good at making deals with local tribes, they may have won as much by negotiations as by force.
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u/socialistrob 2d ago
nd the Saudi's themselves just functionally can not make a military that will ever be more than a Palace Guard, at least not under the current governing system.
And considering the Saudis poor record of fighting what are the chance they actually excel at training others to fight?
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u/Spare_Elderberry_418 2d ago
Knowing the Saudis watch them lose more territory by invading Yemen again.
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u/souldragon15z 1d ago
even they usa had difficulty; now imagine a poorly trained army against the best trained asymmetrical rebels
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
Oil Prices are currently down 20% over the last 6 months. Now that Hormuz traffic is back to normal, the supply shock should be coming down. Oil is outpacing gasoline prices, but gas prices have also started to drop, at least in the US. (down 10 cents over the last week) Things aren't done yet, but barring a new fundamental status quo change, gas prices will probably continue to fall back down towards something normal.
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u/legbreaker 2d ago edited 2d ago
How are oil prices compared to 3 months ago?
- 15% more expensive crude compared to 3 months ago.
- 40% more expensive diesel
How are oil prices compared to 6 months ago?
- 10% less expensive crude compared to 6 months ago (early april)
- 14% more expensive diesel
How are oil prices compared to 9 months ago?
- crude 50% more expensive
- diesel 80% more expensive
So things are worse than three months ago (and not trending down) and way way worse than 9 months ago.
You picked an outlier data 6 months ago, exaggerated it by 2x, it does not support an argument of a trend if the trend broke this summer.
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u/OnlyRise9816 2d ago
"Normal" is doing some mighty heavy lifting there. The supply chain is adapting , better than really was hoped considering all the issues it has to deal with. But the 2 major waterways being affected are nowhere close to being back to normal use, or even back to being remotely safe. And there is a lot of behind the scenes reserve usage and general reshuffling that can only go so far. Not to mention that nothing has actually been resolved that might make peace permanent, and in fact both sides seem to be gearing up for another round in the coming months. All in all, I think you might be a tad bit overly optimistic there. But hey, it's been a wild decade so far, and shit doesn;t have to make sense anymore apparently.
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u/throwawaybsme 2d ago edited 2d ago
Deliberately choosing to compare oil today to six months ago obfuscates the real world situation and whitewashes/sanewashes what Trump's war of choice in Iran has done to international relations, international business, readiness, etc. Oil is still up more than 50% compared to 8 months ago
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
That doesn't change the fact that the situation is getting better for ordinary consumers across the world.
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u/throwawaybsme 2d ago
Can you point to more than cherry picked statistics to prove this?
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
The only way to prove anything is with data, if stats are wrong do have better stats?
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u/MaximumFamiliar9080 2d ago
Yeah but an analysis that chooses data to try and prove a point while ignoring data that contradicts that conclusion contains bias and is at best useless and at worst deliberately misleading
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
which isn't what im doing, im not saying things are fine, im saying things have been getting better and look likely to get better.
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u/MaximumFamiliar9080 2d ago
Thats exactly what you are doing.
You are picking two points (6 months apart) and arguing the relative trend between the two favours your interpretation while ignoring the actual data (the price of oil/petrol as it actually trends daily/weekly) and so your bias misses the current realities of the situation.
Additionally you ignore all supporting evidence that contradicts your conclusion.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
An interesting analysis I read from Geopolitical Futures: "[Europe] releasing state reserves today could lower prices, but those stocks exist precisely because the energy situation could deteriorate further. Europe is entering winter after losing access to Russian petroleum products, facing continued disruption in the Middle East and now potentially losing Chinese refined product exports as an additional balancing source. U.S. allies are therefore being asked to spend part of their insurance policy before they know how severe the winter energy crisis may become."
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u/Wurm42 2d ago
I'm skeptical that release will actually happen.
Trump made his demand, the European G7 members released a draft proposal with a lot of asterisks, and Trump declared victory.
I think the Europeans set this up to give Trump a good headline going into the weekend. That's all Trump really wanted-- some headlines that make him look tough and look like he's doing something about the price of oil.
I don't think the US will actually get any diesel from Europe because of this process.
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u/MaxPlanck_420 2d ago
He doesn't want diesel from Europe, he wants them to buy less of it from the US. We export half a million barrels of diesel to Europe everyday. Trump wants them to consume some of their reserves to ease global demand.
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u/Veastli 1d ago edited 1d ago
he wants them to buy less of it from the US
Donnie wants US diesel prices to go down.
Even if the EU does open their reserves, it's unlikely to impact US prices.
Because the US refiners have the inverse motivation. They want to export as much US diesel as they possibly can, to anyone they can, at current high prices.
Unless Donnie restricts US exports, that won't change.
His smart move would be to restrict 40-60% of exports. This would make it unlikely that refiners would curtail production, while increasing domestic supply.
But Donnie probably won't do that, because he's just not very smart.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Congress: Democratic senators in the US say they expect a vote before the end of the year on the Trump administration’s pact to share nuclear power technology with Saudi Arabia.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
IRGC: Says its Al Quds force has destroyed an alleged “terrorist cell” in the southwestern Sistan-Balochistan province, near the critical Chabahar port.
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u/ResortMain780 2d ago
I think you can drop the air quotes. Even the US dept of state designated the Balochistan Liberation Army as a terrorist group. Though thats only because that same group also performs attacks in pakistan and washington wanted to placate pakistan. You can bet good money the CIA and Mossad doesnt mind and will happily fund, arm and train anything fighting the IRGC.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
French President Emmanuel Macron: Says that G7 states intend to offer up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil to each other over the next four months.
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u/Zealot_of_Law 2d ago
For those paying attention thats about 4 days of global usage. Which would reduce global demand, but we will see how that goes.
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u/AdSuperb5755 12h ago
I am just going to correct you there: “4 days of global demand GIVEN no other supply. 100 million barrels will bring supply closer to normal for a couple of months
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Trump Truth Social post: "Europe has just agreed to release a massive amount of their heavily stocked Diesel Oil. The process will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT"
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u/insert_name_here_12 2d ago
‘I’m sure Iran won’t be sitting still and letting Trump dictate terms’ - lol tumbleweed and the IRGC bots in complete disarray right now.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar on AJE: Says that an emergency meeting of the strategic political defence committee under the pact between Pakistan, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia will be held next week.
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u/Wise_Preference609 2d ago
They better get a move along before things on the actual ground in Yemen get away from them.
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u/Rgv20 2d ago
Yes so reliable
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u/jews4beer 2d ago
I mean all sides say the meeting is happening. What's unreliable about this?
I guess if you are rooting for Iran then this is unfortunate, but still pretty reliable.
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u/itsatumbleweed 2d ago
I would say that it's not much of a defensive pact of they didn't have a meeting in response to Riyadh and Yanbu getting hit tbh
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
The Taiz Military Axis media centre, part of the Yemeni goverment forces’ communication wing: Is reporting “violent clashes” between Houthi and goverment forces north of the city of Taiz.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz: “[Iran is] enriching uranium to 60 percent, which has no credible civilian purpose”
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
AP-NORC poll: 71% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran, while 69% say the war has not been worth fighting. 65%of adults blamed Trump’s policies for higher-than-usual prices.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Trump: Says Iran will either “do something very proper and smart, or they won’t be around very long”
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Justice Department: Has arrested Ashton Hamed Ellaboudy, a 51-year-old US Energy Department employee for allegedly attempting to provide material support or resources to Yemen’s Houthis. “Ellaboudy acquired materials for the construction of explosive material and drones capable of delivering these explosives”
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Reuters: EU says it "fully rejects" a US diesel export ban, but is open to release 50 million barrels of diesel
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u/ResortMain780 2d ago
They should release it to the US. Under similar conditions as US SPR releases: return the diesel +20% in 6 months. Im all for it.
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u/putin_my_ass 2d ago
Which is a few weeks of diesel consumption in Europe (they use around 4.5 million barrels of diesel per day).
EU countries hold roughly 315 million to 350 million barrels of strategic and commercial diesel and gasoil reserves, so it's a good chunk of reserves but not huge.
Maybe enough to appease Trump, but probably not actually making a dent in prices.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Axios: US ships Patriot missiles to Middle East to guard Saudi and Qatari energy sites
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Trump: Says he'll fill up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "at almost no cost" with Venezuelan oil
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u/Intelligent_Front967 2d ago
Then why is he desperately pressuring other countries to release their strategic reserves?
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u/Ancient_Mud_2841 3d ago
Muslim World League condemns Houthi strike on Medina power station serving Masjid an-Nabawi The Muslim World League has condemned a Houthi attack on the Taibah electricity distribution station in Medina, Saudi Arabia, saying the facility provides electricity services to Prophet Muhammad’s mosque (Masjid an-Nabawi). In a statement, the organisation said the attack was part of continued Houthi assaults, calling the targeting of a facility serving one of Islam’s holiest sites a “dangerous provocation” to Muslims around the world. Secretary-General Mohammed bin Abdulkarim al-Issa condemned attacks on civilian infrastructure and religious sanctities, saying they violated Islamic values and basic humanitarian principles. The league also expressed full solidarity with Saudi Arabia and backed measures taken by the kingdom to protect civilians and holy sites.
-AJE
Houthis really trying to make this a regional war.
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u/putin_my_ass 2d ago
Houthis really trying to make this a regional war.
That was the idea behind not poking the hornets nest.
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u/ResortMain780 2d ago
Houthis really trying to make this a regional war.
Really? The houthis vehemently deny attacking mecca or medina, which is just as holy for them as it is for any other muslim. The houthis are fighting a civil war against foreign backed mercenaries in their own country, and a blockade imposed by SA, as well as suffering air attacks by SA now and pretty much everyone else in recent history. Its not them that started this fight with SA. Its SA, whos mercenaries are losing badly, that picked the fight with their neighbours and who have been desperately trying to make this a wider regional war asking basically every country in the world to come join the fight. They have so far begged the US, UK, France, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and allegedly even Israel to get involved. Who have the houthis called upon to join the war? No one, they are doing everything they can to keep other nations out. Its not very difficult to connect the dots and figure out who benefits from this attack (if it even happened) and who is more likely telling the truth here.
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u/Ancient_Mud_2841 2d ago
Houthis have a history of attacking holy sites https://missilethreat.csis.org/saudi-arabia-intercepts-yemeni-missile-near-mecca/
Pakistan will defend Mecca y Medina
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u/ResortMain780 2d ago edited 2d ago
SA has a history of claiming the houthis attack holy sites, which houthis have always denied:
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260916-houthi-official-denies-targeting-mecca-with-drone/
Pakistan will defend Mecca y Medina
That is exactly the outcome SA desperately wants, and the houthis definitely do not want. Again, not very difficult to connect the dots. Cui bono?
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u/Ancient_Mud_2841 2d ago
Connecting dots is a child’s game.
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u/fox-master8188 3d ago
Thinking back on it, what were the U.S simulators smoking when carrying out the Millennium Challenge, if it went as how they predicted - we would’ve seen so some sunken U.S carriers and oil prices going over $300 an barrel by now.
Then again, better to be safe than sorry - but it’s funny seeing people frame $100 oil prices as a sign Iran is winning when every anti-U.S commentator under the sun swear that Iran is going to damage the U.S thousands of times worse then the current situation.
I.E: losing multiple battle groups, thousands of soldiers killed off-rip, Isreal being destroyed, the Strait not having any oil flowing for years on end, etc
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u/SpiritualName2684 2d ago
I believe in the war game, the REDFOR ( Iran) launched a surprise attack on the navy, which they were not prepared for. In 2026 war, Iran did not take that opportunity and their main offensives capability was dismantled within a few weeks.
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u/CommercialHour6660 3d ago
if it went as how they predicted - we would’ve seen so some sunken U.S carriers and oil prices going over $300 an barrel by now.
US also didn't do ground invasion. A sea blockade and blowing half our stand off weapons instead.
Iran hasn't gone "all out" because they know they can wait out Trump and go back to business as usual. US already lost. They didn't do enough damage to the regime and are unwilling to commit to invasion.
In 6 months Iran will be mostly recovered while US destroyed their reputation and wasted maybe half a trillion dollars.
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u/Hamiltonblewit 3d ago
Iran has claimed to have gotten all out multiple times when firing dozens of ballistics at Isreal during the 12 Day War and similarly against the U.S during the early days of the war. Hell, they’ve threatened to completely obliterate Isreal and the U.S in the coming days only for that to never happen.
Asides from striking GCC facilities, we have already seen their “all out”. The claims that they can easily sink a prepared U.S battle group is a bit, just a tiny bit exaggerated?
And well, their economy is just not recoverable in 6 months, if it was in an abysmal state with unprecedented currency devaluation and drought, this war is simply not helping.
Also, I feel like if most people’s expectations involved the Strait to not have a single oil flow and immediate U.S losses, then anything less than that 8 months in and trying to spin moderately higher energy prices as an epic loss is just pure revisionism - this war has only displayed the U.S tactical abilities while it’s being led by an man child.
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u/ResortMain780 2d ago edited 2d ago
Asides from striking GCC facilities, we have already seen their “all out”.
Have we really? Israeli intelligence estimates iran currently still has 80K shahed style drones and is building ~400/day. So far in the entire war, Iran has launched fewer than 5K (which was enough to cause several billion dollar worth of damage to US' most heavily protected assets and basically made the US retreat from the region).
The claims that they can easily sink a prepared U.S battle group is a bit, just a tiny bit exaggerated?
Why are the US battlegroups operating more than a 1000Km from Iran if they did not think Iran poses a credible threat to them? They are sailing so far from Iran, their airplanes cant even reach weapons range without mid air refuelling. Recall in the iraq war, the US sailed 3 carriers inside the persian gulf. Now the only thing coming close is unmanned drones and UUVs while they are trying to interdict tankers literally an ocean away from the strait they claim to control.
Iran have recently "targeted" US naval vessels in the indian ocean with a ballistic missile. This is a much bigger deal than it sounds like, because it proved that Iran can locate those ships, and has manoeuvrable medium range quasi ballistic missiles with mid course and terminal guidance. The only other nation on the planet that has such missiles is China with its DF21 "carrier killer". Defending against such missiles is extremely hard, if not impossible. They do not follow a predictable ballistic trajectory in outer space where an SM6 or thaad could intercept them. And they come in WAY too fast for point defense systems.
Do those iranian (or for that matter, chinese) hypersonic antiship missiles actually work? We dont know. We do know that the US has not even claimed they shot down that missile, they say they "evaded" it (and imagine them not even trying to shoot down a incoming manoeuvrable ballistic missile and just hoping it would miss). Several analysts and iranian sources have said the missile was set to airburst, as Iran did not want to actually hit a major US vessel, because that would likely cause 1000s of US casualties and make trump go absolutely beserk, and possibly nuclear. Iran launched that missile solely to demonstrate its ability; what Iran wants is to push the US fleet as far away as they can to limit the US' ability to impose its counter blockade. And that definitely seems to have worked, US fleet retreated even further after that attack. Seems reasonable to assume the US military takes the threat quite seriously even if you dont.
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u/Hamiltonblewit 2d ago
I’m specifically referring to their rate of fire, unless you’ll want to explain how Iran can fire all of their missile arsenal and drones in one launch rotation then the earlier launch rate we’ve seen in the 12 Day War and early on into the Iran conflict is how much they can theoretically launch in one wave due to very obvious logistical and hardware challenges.
Additionally, this entire war is almost being sustained by U.S naval forces and their carrier launched aircraft’s from one carrier group mind you. People were stating it was an guarantee that Iran would sink an carrier as soon as the conflict start - excluding the fact we’ve sunk their naval ships and caused enormous casualties, killed their top echelon multiple times, and many other transgressions that are simply irrevocable redlines. ANYTHING LESS than those expected losses is 100% going against those so-called experts and pro-Iranian figures who were claiming enormous U.S losses from the get-go and backtracked as soon as it’s clear Iran did not in fact hit any U.S ships, killed thousands of infantry by striking those bases, or any other optimistic estimates.
However, to your point, I completely agree that even without Chinese/Russian aid, the risk of Iranian munitions hitting U.S ships is a huge factor in the U.S conducting these long range attacks via refueling - but guess what? That’s the kinda the point of long range refueling and advanced aircraft/radar capabilities in this day and age - these U.S capabilities prove aircraft carrier groups are still here to say albeit with more caution AND drones/ballistic missiles won’t make them useless.
Otherwise, the elephant in the room is - why is China building aircraft carriers at record rate if those ballistic missiles and drones will make them ineffective? The answer is - people have underestimated the necessity of carrier groups for power projection.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
I’m specifically referring to their rate of fire, unless you’ll want to explain how Iran can fire all of their missile arsenal and drones in one launch rotation then the earlier launch rate we’ve seen in the 12 Day War and early on into the Iran conflict is how much they can theoretically launch in one wave due to very obvious logistical and hardware challenges.
I dont get the point you are trying to make. Clearly their launch rate exceeds the rate at which the US (or israel) can resupply (never mind manufacture) interceptors, both on land but especially, at sea. Most reports say both the US and Israel were virtually out of ballistic interceptors by the time trump signed the surrender MoU, while Iran had barely dented their stock piles, especially of their newer and more capable missile. And it wasnt just attrition; even fully stocked military bases were overwhelmed, not just in the 12 day war, also more recently when iran fired a single ~20-ish missile barrage towards US bases in Jordan.
Consider the context of that last attack; iran launched that in retaliation for the US striking their tankers in Hegseths "tanker for tanker" policy. What happened to that policy? Iran has struck over a dozen tankers since, it even wounded a dozen or so US military personnel in one of those attacks. Did the US retaliate? No. One missile barrage and Hegseth's tanker for tanker policy was quietly buried. Did the US even retaliate for the attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base? Again, no. They havent even gone after the launch sites of those attacks.
Despite all the brouhaha, it certainly looks like Irans deterrence is more than intact.
Additionally, this entire war is almost being sustained by U.S naval forces and their carrier launched aircraft’s from one carrier group mind you.
Could that be because Iran took out ~28 US bases in the region? And what are those carriers actually doing? Not a whole lot other than firing decades production worth of tomahawks. I do not believe they are even flying near the SoH anymore with anything other than drones (which are frequently shot down), let alone over Iran. I also dont recall the last time the US hit a target that was not on the southern shore line.
That’s the kinda the point of long range refueling and advanced aircraft/radar capabilities in this day and age - these U.S capabilities prove aircraft carrier groups are still here to say albeit with more caution AND drones/ballistic missiles won’t make them useless.
We will see if or when this war reignites and Iran takes off the gloves when it comes to hitting US ships. If one single ballistic missile hits, carriers will instantly become obsolete, and liabilities rather than capabilities. Much like military bases in the gulf.
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u/Hamiltonblewit 2d ago
TLDR: The pro-Russians/Chinese/Iranians who were claiming aircraft carriers will be useless in a foreign engagement is DEAD wrong with this current conflict - the US is solely sustaining this conflict with an aircraft carrier without meeting any threshold for the insane losses they’re predicted to take after 8 months.
It was on the pro-Iranians for alleging those diesel submarines, drones, missiles, etc can sink a carrier easily or making insane claims of dozens of downed F-35s, sunken naval ships, or the infamous pilot rescue which they denied because they wholeheartedly believe U.S aircraft are incapable of violating Iranian airspace. You can’t really walk those widespread predictions back just like it was stupid of Trump to claim Iran is totally defeated.
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u/ResortMain780 1d ago
Funny how I reached the complete opposite conclusion. The US gave it its best shot, it fired most of its stand off weapons, it depleted its inventory of interceptors, and it did absolutely nothing to dent iran's deterrence, all the US achieved militarily was lose 28 military bases, being forced retreat to jordan and the indian ocean, while irans stockpiles are basically intact, and it wields power over the region it never ever had.
Its even iran that has escalation dominance now. What can the US do with all those carriers that it hasnt already tried? If it again tries to go after military targets, Iran will pummel US bases in return, even in Jordan, even inside Israel (where Im pretty sure the US will retreat to next). They might also actually go after US naval vessels, and that is not something the US military can afford. If iran manages to hit a carrier with a ballistic missile, and I think thats quite possible, its not just 1000s of US sailors that will die, it will be the end of US military deterrence and credibility (which is why I doubt this war will reignite significantly, but we'll see)
The US could hit energy infrastructure in Iran, sure, but then Iran will lay waste to the entire GCC.
What other military options does the US have? Invade Iran? I dont think thats gonna end well.
Iran has basically neutered US' military options. All the US has left is economic pressure. There is no denying the sanctions and blockade hurt Iran. But the US had those options before this war. Militarily, this is a humiliating defeat against a country that has a military budget that is not even a rounding error of the pentagons budget.
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u/CommercialHour6660 3d ago
It's all bluster. Trump says he's gonna "annihilate" Iran for the 20th time. Iran says the same thing an hour later.
And you seriously think Iran has gone all out? Are you kidding me?
US admitted Iran still had 70% of their missiles a few months in. And they've had enough time to rebuild their entire missile and drone war chest.
Trump blows something up, Iran does in response. This has been going on for months.
Iran has enough ballistics and drones to destroy all of the Gulf's oil and water infrastructure. Even US think tanks admit this. They have decided not to because a long slow war does far more long term damage to US.
If Iran went all out the Gulf countries AND US would be forced to invade. Because the damage would be so great to Gulf countries that their populations would demand it. And the invasion would topple Iran's leadership. Going all out is the only way Iran loses.
That's why Iran focuses on attacking US military bases. They don't want to give the Gulf states a reason for a ground invasion.
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u/Hamiltonblewit 3d ago
Iran cannot launch more than dozens of missiles at once - they have a limited amount of launchers. So yes, just because they did not make the physically impossible decision to fire all of their missile stockpiles at once with non-existent additional launchers, they have gone all out because there’s a theoretical limit to their firing rate?
Let’s say we fight China, sure, China has tens of thousands of missiles and drones, but they cannot be launched ALL at once. Same for Russia, who can only launch a couple hundred Gerans or so each night - There’s limits to launchers which is why the whole “yeah, Iran hasn’t launched more than dozens of missiles at a time because they’re so chad” is so stupid
And is letting the U.S into their country to rescue their pilot a sign of goodwill? I mean c’mon, if they’re capable of shooting down U.S fighters by the dozens, they would have shown even a semblance of those capabilities by now. Or followed through with any of their other threat to limit U.S capabilities besides damaging those bases.
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u/Veastli 3d ago
Iran hasn't gone "all out"
Yes, this is the key difference between those war games and the actual war.
Iran has been playing game theory 101, tit-for-tat. The US hits a facility, Iran hits a similar facility in a US allied state.
No more - no less. Tit-for-tat is a proven method to deter an opponent, and to de-escalate a conflict.
Consider that at the end of major hostilities, the Pentagon estimated Iran still retained 70% of their ballistic missiles. This is more than enough to destroy most of the oil processing in the gulf region. The targets are fixed, well known, and widely separated. The US and Gulf allies do not have enough anti-ballistics interceptors to stop them.
Iran would only do this if their oil processing were destroyed. As they know if they started down this path, their own oil would also be destroyed.
Mutually assured destruction.
This scenario would mark the beginning of the end of petroleum age. As it would take most gulf oil off the market for a year or two. It would no longer be a reliable energy source.
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u/Hamiltonblewit 3d ago
Mostly referring to U.S naval losses though - especially in regards to those prized diesel submarines (god, I remember those asinine comparisons to that Swiss submarine sinking an simulated U.S carrier group) and jet boats with missile launchers - which were frankly non-factors that were immediately destroyed and many of the same pro-Iranians who were praising those capabilities had to back track and settle for damaged bases, 18+ U.S deaths, and slightly higher oil prices as an showcase of Iran’s strength and their totally expected assessment of U.S tactical losses
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u/Veastli 2d ago edited 2d ago
remember those asinine comparisons
The Millennium Challenge is now a quarter century old. Weapons and detection systems have advanced massively since. The detection systems are more important in this regard.
Imaging planning the Vietnam war with WWII war games? There's an even longer time gap between the Millennium Challenge and this war.
That wargame has long been largely irrelevant.
and slightly higher oil prices
The US, China, and other nations have been throwing their entire bodies on the scale in order to stabilize oil prices.
A depletion of the US and other western strategic reserves could be assumed. The massive surprise was China largely ceasing to buy oil for a six full months!
When the largest petroleum buyer on the planet largely stops buying for six months, prices and price shocks are tremendously diminished. There is far more supply than there would otherwise be.
Had China not depleted their strategic reserves, there would have been regular and massive spikes, far higher oil prices, resulting in far higher consumer inflation, and likely a global recession.
Which is why China depleted their reserves. To avoid a recessionary hit to their manufacturing exports.
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u/work4work4work4work4 3d ago
This scenario would mark the beginning of the end of petroleum age. As it would take most gulf oil off the market for a year or two. It would no longer be a reliable energy source.
It'd basically take most the oil off the market, killing the market. We already see the wild ass demands and asks happening in regards to other countries supplies and production.
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u/Spare_Elderberry_418 3d ago
Because the US actually adapted and learned since then? That is the whole point of those war games. To identify weaknesses to develop countermeasures for them.
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u/DarkReignRecruiter 3d ago
Well obviously the warnings of those exercises were heeded and this has led to the US being more cautious.
Those ships and carriers were sunk in the war games by small boats filled with explosives carrying out kamikaze attacks. So in the real scenario, the US has made sure to keep the vast bulk of its Navy well out of range of Iran's coast. This includes the blockade that was implemented.
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u/Hamiltonblewit 3d ago edited 3d ago
At the same time, highlighted threats like Iranian “quiet” diesel submarines (alluding to Swiss submarines I believe sinking carriers in challenges) or Iranian drones/cruise missiles were just non factors since they were disabled quite easily. And then once it turns out those capabilities were not too useful against the carrier group, people just memory holed their praise of those supposed capabilities.
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u/itsatumbleweed 3d ago
Explosions in Sana'a, the capital of yemen. Potential Houthi response incoming.
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u/ResortMain780 3d ago
Just as important was the prelude; Ansarallah have cut off the last road to Taizz. The city is now effectively encircled.
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u/socialistrob 3d ago
And for those unfamiliar Ansarallah is another name for the Houthis and Taizz is the third largest city in Yemen located in the southwest of the country.
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u/maddprof 3d ago
So other than being the third largest city, what's the strategic value of Taizz?
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u/Junior_Gazelle9524 2d ago
Most of the internationally back government population and resources that they have left are in two cities one of them obviously taizz so losing taizz wolud be another massive blow to not only thier legitimacy but also they ability to fight back as many of their fighters have homes in taizz.
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u/joshtaco 3d ago
Fars: Citing a source with knowledge, the claim that Araghchi made a proposal to the US to allow nuclear inspectors at its sites is false.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1h ago
Makkah Defence Pact committee meets in Riyadh tomorrow as Yemen offensive escalates
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https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/10/05/turkiye-says-makkah-pact-committee-to-meet-in-riyadh-tomorrow