A final thought on Tracy
You frequently hear people talking about how important offensive support is for pitchers, that it's a constant stress on them feeling like they have to be perfect every pitch. I think there's a good argument that a similar effect was putting pressure on Tracy based on the Sox' offensive woes (partially due to injuries) pretty much all through September.
I think Tracy made mistakes pulling both Tolle and Gray; I'm not trying to excuse what he did, just understand it (at a level deeper than the crowd immediately jumping to "analytics bad"). I think it was a rookie manager mistake made because he was thinking too much about the Sox' inability to score runs in September. The bigger mistake was that he didn't fully commit to it, especially in the second game. If you really think that Bellinger PA in an elimination game is important enough to pull your best starter, then you should go for your best bullpen arm right then instead of saving them for a situation that may or may not happen later.
I'm hoping that he learned from the mistake, and am honestly more concerned at his inability to diagnose and do something about the offensive collapse in September.
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u/Upset_Journalist_755 1d ago
We were dead by September. Hoping Tracy learned from the two games and that the playoffs aren't the time to worry about how tired your best pitchers are.
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u/BigPappaBIGS 1d ago
I think everything with the pitching was predetermined. The fact they went with miller both games is the most insane thing ever. He absolutely fucking sucked for a month. It makes no sense. It couldn't have been Tracy's decision. The post game interviews with gray and contreras really show that the analytics are killing the red sox and breslow is an absolute fucking clown.
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u/BigNachos7 1d ago
There are no analytics that said Miller was the right player to bring in. That's just dumb managing.
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u/Elfich47 1d ago
The problem I have with "analytics" in those kinds of cases is the sample size is going to be small, and attempting to control for the variables is going to make the sample size even smaller. I'm not saying Miller was the right choice, but trying to say "the analytics can find something useful in the data we have" is a real long shot.
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u/AgadorFartacus 1d ago
When good things happen that's because of old school baseball, and when bad things happen that's because of analytics.
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u/slickwilliefitz 1d ago
WC said it after the game. It’s not that using analytics is a problem, it’s being overly reliant on it. After Miller shit the bed in game 1, there was no excuse for repeating the same pattern. Theo used analytics to build the rosters in the 2000s, but he also understood that Tito needed to make calls in the moment
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u/mdj 1d ago
That's not "analytics", though. If anything, it was more "old school" thinking that Miller was the first leverage arm out of the bullpen for a good bit of the season, so he had to be that now. Analytics (as I said in the post) would argue that if you thought Rice or Bellinger was the most important PA for the rest of the game (or season, in the Bellinger case), you bring in your best guy instead of saving him for something that may or may not happen. That's an argument for bringing in Chapman or Whitlock instead of saving them for later in the game. That's the analytic approach.
What happened was more like "we have set roles for the bullpen guys and can't deviate from them" which is very old school thinking.
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u/slickwilliefitz 1d ago
They literally brought Miller in because the analytics said that Rice struggled with sinkers. But he didn’t struggle with that one because he hung it real good. He stunk throughout September but they kept trotting him out. The players are telling us that it’s because they’re overly reliant on analytics lol
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u/mdj 1d ago
You seem completely confident in that. Did Tracy tell you personally, or are you just repeating a claim from someone in the media or on the internet?
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u/slickwilliefitz 23h ago
Oh c’mon dude lol. Why else would you bring in a guy that finished the season with a 7 ERA for the last month of the season against arguably, one of the Yankees best players this year? Literally repeating the same decision making process the next night when the season on the line tells me that Tracy got his marching orders from Breslow’s algorithm.
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u/mdj 15h ago
So “analytics bad” and’s not even considering that that has been Miller’s role in the regular season and Tracy just stuck with the model he had. Your argument doesn’t even stand up on its own terms; Bellinger wasn’t particularly vulnerable to sinkers and he crushed sliders in 2026. Miller’s arsenal is overwhelmingly those two pitches.
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u/Artistic-Menu9914 5h ago
You keep arguing ITT that this was not predetermined, I certainly disagree. Miller was acquired by Breslow at the deadline to be in that exact spot against the Yankees against that type of batter in the postseason, and Breslow and Co. Wanted him in that type of spot as a feather in their cap. Breslow literally said as much to the media when they got him. He was ASS in September, if you had an actual feel for the game of baseball, which becomes so much more important in the playoffs, you don't make him the #1 guy out there to replace your starter, who had more in the tank and the ONE thing you had over the Yankees is your starting pitching, the strength of your team, and you didn't let them pitch enough. So they pull Tolle and Miller goes boom. I'll even give you that you could made a case for that in whatever argument you want to make even though I'd disagree, BUT TO DO THE SAME THING THE NEXT NIGHT?!? And you think that was Tracy? I'm not sure if you agree with the move itself, but good lord man how daft do you have to be to do the same thing again? If it was Tracy it is catastrophic idiocy on night 2 especially considering how well Gray was pitching, if it was from upstairs it's a complete disconnect from the human element of baseball which is exactly why the Sox aren't going to win shit under this Ownership again: they just do not get it.
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u/mdj 5h ago
It’s clear that you disagree. What’s not clear is why you disagree other than “it was a bad decision therefore it’s analytics” with dash of Breslow hate. Analytics wouldn’t argue for bringing in Miller to face Bellinger. That’s much more in line with “old baseball” thinking of “this guy’s role is first lefty out of the pen” and blindly sticking to it, but you’re so convinced everything wrong with baseball is “analytics” that you can’t even consider that.
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u/John_Self_2077 1d ago
In the long run, managers succeed or fail more on how they deal with their players than on in-game tactics. Tito was great because he had the players’ backs no matter what. I think Tracy will be in that mode. He had a few things to learn from in this offseason but they’re not that major. He’ll be fine.
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u/SempreVeritas7468 17h ago
He showed how much of a novice he was in the playoffs, raise some unique decisions to say the least
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u/CryptographerFlat173 10h ago
Pulling either wasn’t some grave error, especially Tolle give he looked gassed. Going back to Miller after Wednesday made no sense though. Gray had given up several hits in recent PA’s and had runners on. In the end the offense stunk so bad it makes little difference but it’s the thing people are focusing on the most. And recency bias has people forgetting how well Chad managed the bullpen to get the team to the postseason in the first place.
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u/joker1923 11h ago
This had Breslow’s fingerprints all over it. And Tracy should’ve had the balls to push back and not execute based upon the script he was handed. This analytics nonsense will never prevail when managers need to make gut decision decisions based on what they’re saying. This better be a learning lesson for everyone, especially Tracy and Breslow.
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u/Easy_Entry7917 8h ago
I agree with this. Pulling the SP is one thing but bringing in someone who has not been lights out is another.
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u/Glum_Chemical_8460 6h ago
Like any MLB Manager he needs a few good veteran power hitters among this young core. But I don’t think that will ever happen. management frustrated Alex Cora for quite a few years now it is Chad Tracy’s turn Good Luck.
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u/stevep3478 5h ago
The organization wants to operate on a thin talent margin. They want to be a presentable product, something they can stand by as a good and decent product. Any manager is going to be operating in this scarcity environment and the pressure and constraints it brings.
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u/The_Walrus_65 1d ago
I think it all had to do with analytics and what Breslow wanted him to do.
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u/mdj 1d ago
Based on....? There are no analytics that argue for Miller in that spot.
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u/HomerJSimpson3 15h ago
Miller was a choice. Pulling Tolle and Gray in the same spot on back to back nights is analytics at play
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u/mdj 15h ago
Except it isn’t. Analytics would look at Gray’s performance the third time though the order and argue for handling him differently. There’s a whole lot of “bad decision, therefore analytics” going on here by people who haven’t even looked at the numbers.
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u/HomerJSimpson3 14h ago
Gray’s performance vs historical performance. Gray had not pitched well at Yankee stadium prior to this season, that factored in too.
No manager would pull their pitcher who was cruising after giving up 1 run on what, 70 pitches, after 4 2/3 innings unless it was numbers driven.
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u/Born_Peak_2355 1d ago
The organization is an analytics zombie. They didn't trust their biggest weapon. Their ace and Tolle, that great pitching. What's the point of having an ace who is pulled at 4 2/3 innings? There's no way it was just Tracy's decision or made at that moment. Their system is inherently flawed
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u/ZizzyBeluga 1d ago
A rookie mistake that is the equivalent of a fire fighter putting out a fire with gasoline
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u/soxfamily61 1d ago
Coach and managers. By fact are 30 percent of the teams out come. Listen or read jarrod diamond.. so fact it’s on the players. They sucked for two months and couldn’t hit a ball Abreau fell off the wagon. They were the worst scoring team in September August wasn’t much better.
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u/Wonderful_Ad_889 18h ago
Fell off the wagon?
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u/soxfamily61 11h ago
Well, I meant if the wagon was on a journey to get somewhere he fell off of it somewhere in the middle. I don’t know what I was saying but the statement stands 30% coaches 70% players.
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u/Wonderful_Ad_889 10h ago
Thats what you think “fell off the wagon” means?
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u/soxfamily61 8h ago
No I know what it means. I’m 65 years old. It’s falling off. The wagon is not being sober anymore. It was very late at night I apped ha
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u/Gordoncomstock1 1d ago
Better managers than he is have made stupider mistakes, later in their careers.