r/onguardforthee • u/pjw724 Alberta • 7h ago
Quebec on the cusp of electing separatist government promising referendum
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-quebec-on-the-cusp-of-electing-separatist-government-promising/76
u/OneLessFool 6h ago
It's so funny because separatism polls at less than 30% in QC atm, and PQ can somehow win a majority with less than 30% of the vote.
FPTP sucks
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u/MissKhary 6h ago
There are plenty of people who vote PQ who would vote no in a referendum.
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u/cekoya 5h ago
There are also people who aren't voting PQ that would vote yes to a referendum, we should not forgot those
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u/MissKhary 5h ago
There are those too, but I was just replying to the comment that was equating the % of separatists with the % of PQ voters... they're not the same numbers.
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u/SirupyPieIX 3h ago
Exactly. 3 out of 5 party leaders voted yes in the previous referendum, and the 4th was too young but would vote yes now.
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u/hypespud ✅ I voted! 5h ago
FPTP is showing how anti-democratic it is
We need PR with ranked choice asap
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u/Yws6afrdo7bc789 4h ago
Ranked choice sucks though. Every citizen's commission recommends proportionate representation for good reason. In Canada, I've only heard the Liberals supporting ranked choice, and that should tell you something about it. In Australia, they have ranked choice and have actually seen their 3rd parties become less relevant as the two big one collude to maintain their own power, exactly the situation we would have in Canada.
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u/hypespud ✅ I voted! 4h ago
You can have PR and ranked choice, they aren't mutually exclusive
Every time I mention both, someone makes the same reply as this, every single time
Not mutually exclusive
Literally said "PR with ranked choice" and people still don't get it, I don't understand
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u/Ghi102 7h ago
I am not a separatist, but that is simply wrong, it is scare-mongering. You won't see a referendum for two reasons:
It is politically quite unpopular (many people who voted PQ don't support it).
They said that an unfucked relationship with the US is a pre-requisite. Anybody see that happening any time soon?
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u/Free-Constant999 7h ago
They all say whatever they have to, to get votes. The best we can hope for is Alberta's attempt fails and it looks like an even dumber and wasteful endeavour.
Personally I think the PQ will push the referendum regardless and it'll be 65 against and ~200m down the drain.
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u/DNxHD36 6h ago
I think they will wait until later in their term, presuming the Trump administration is ousted before then. And by that time, I think it may be a more popular prospect.
I think everyone assuming it will lose by a landslide is naive. Remember Brexit. Remember that the misinformation campaigns will be subsidized by not just Russia and China, but the United States as well.
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u/OutsideFlat1579 6h ago
PSPP said he wouldn’t have a referendum as long as Trump is president. So if the PQ gets a majority, he will want to have a referendum after Trump is gone. Anyways, that’s not my main concern about PSPP, he is an extreme xenophobe, and has been complaining about woke people, and how experts aren’t so great and wants to interfere with what universities are teaching, has said he wants to ban religious symbols/attire in schools, and in the last debate wouldn’t answer the question about whether or not women should be allowed to wear hijab in public. It’s like he’s abandoned the best things about the PQ, and wildly increased the negatives.
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u/henchman171 Elbows Up! 5h ago
How did the PQ move right of the CAQ?
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u/Yws6afrdo7bc789 4h ago
It seems the trend of any nationalist party to migrate to the right at the moment.
My personal opinion is that the original movement had valid grievances about the status of Québec and french in Canada and a civic-nationalist character, but in the last ~40 years those grievances have been resloved taking a lot of steam out of the movement as most voters were content with their place in Canada, and further in that time most who remembered pre-1980 have aged out. But the blame Ottawa + nationalism remained easy strings to pull to get votes. Naturally, the brand of politics that best manipulates emotion and suppresses rationality for power is right-wing politics.
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u/ThisIsTheNewSleeve 4h ago
It's a globe and mail article. Fear-mongering and sensationalist headlines is like, their one trick. Just ignore them. The less you engage with their shitty "journalism" the better
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u/thebigeverybody 7h ago
They said that an unfucked relationship with the US is a pre-requisite. Anybody see that happening any time soon?
Why couldn't they simply be lying?
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u/Ghi102 7h ago
Because it's very unpopular and would get even more unpopular with people voting no because they lied.
Suppose you were for separation, would you vote in a government that lied so heavily about this core issue? Some people would, but definitively not more than 50%
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u/evermorecoffee 6h ago
Pretty sure I just saw that the QC separatist leader lied about having been in contact with the US to set up meetings… He claimed he had done no such thing but proof came out he had reached out?
I can totally see this going the way of the UCP…
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u/thebigeverybody 6h ago
That might be true in a world without internet lies brainwashing everyone. Have you seen how successful lying has been for Trump and co.? And how successful short-term thinking has been? Have you seen what's happening in Alberta?
The first step is getting into power. Then they'll change or break anything they need to after that to make it happen.
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u/Opposite-Cranberry76 7h ago
That didn't stop the UCP.
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u/Ghi102 6h ago
The UCP is a bunch of a conspiracy theorists while the PQ is a legitimate party with a lot of history and plans, aside from separation. I honestly wouldn't be surprised that a lot of PQ canadidates are anti-referendum, but get elected because of all of the promises the PQ has, as well as being politically expedient (some places just vote PQ every election). Historically they were our centre-left party (less sure now) and have created many of our social services.
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u/mcpasty666 6h ago
Yep. Like they're a separatist party definitionally, but they've been around since the 60s. When revolutionary parties are around long enough without acheiving their goals, they eventually turn into pretty normal parties. In the case of the PQ, they spent their time in power trying to gain support by funding social programs. Sin Fein had a similar arch.
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u/Opposite-Cranberry76 6h ago
" I honestly wouldn't be surprised that a lot of PQ canadidates are anti-referendum, but get elected because of all of the promises the PQ has, as well as being politically expedient"
But again, that's also true of the UCP. About half of their MLAs and voters are in it for a normal political agenda, and just believe that it's a useful extortion gambit. The PQ has just been at this longer, and has a left tilt. Other than that it's not much better. It's still a sort of extortion racket.
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u/Ghi102 6h ago
Sure, if you know nothing about our politics, I suppose they look similar.
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u/heimdal96 5h ago
They have some similarities, like being xenophobic parties obsessed with perceived grievances towards the federal government. You also keep pointing out that separatism is "very unpopular" in Québec while ignoring that it's still polls more favourably in Québec than it ever has in Alberta or the other western provinces.
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u/Opposite-Cranberry76 6h ago
The high level strategy and playing footsy with Trump are similar.
They tilt on opposite sides of the political spectrum in provincial policy, and the Alberta seppy movement is led by outright con artists at the retail level.
But both are engaged in putting the whole country at risk and losing the respect of every other province.
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u/ReifiedSimulation 6h ago
Another non-Quebecer who knows nothing about Quebec politics. More news at 7.
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u/JustAnotherBarnacle 6h ago
Only because the US turned them down. Wouldn't be surprised if that's why they changed their mind and suddenly announced no ref until trump leaves.
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u/meh_whatev 7h ago
Nothing’s gonna happen yall
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u/4cm3 4h ago
They’re getting elected not because of a separatism movement but because they are less crappy than the other 3 options. This whole thread is fear mongering. Nobody talks separation right now in QC and polls haven’t probably been as low as now in forever. Even the PQ is not really talking about it and avoiding the subject because they know it’ll lower votes for them.
Source : trust me bro I’m in QC.
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u/CFMTLfan01 7h ago
I mean maybe they get a majority governement with like 32% of the vote but that's nots a referendum majority (50% + 1 vote). Independance has been polling at 30-35% for a while. The only risk is federalist don't go out to vote at referendum and only independantist and Yes pass because most people didn't go vote, same could happen for Alberta. Trump got elected because democrat didn't feel like it was important to go vote...
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u/thebigeverybody 7h ago
Brexit passed with 30% support. Trump was elected with 30% support. We need to treat these attempts to destroy Canada like real problems.
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u/ElephantCandid8151 7h ago
Stop saying Brexit had 30%. I lived there it was always polling in the high 40s
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u/Infarad 6h ago
With a voter turnout of 72.21% or 33 million, 51.9% leave vs. 48.1% remain.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7639/
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u/thecanadiandriver101 5h ago
Referendum majority is also not a 50% + 1. I believe the supreme court of Canada said it must be a significant majority for discussions to start, IIRC.
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u/GenericFatGuy Manitoba 7h ago edited 6h ago
Even 50% + 1 is ridiculous. Something as significant as separating from a country should be nothing less than a 66% supermajority.
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u/thecanadiandriver101 5h ago
Referendum majority is also not a 50% + 1. I believe the supreme court of Canada said it must be a significant majority for discussions to start, IIRC.
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u/Hussar223 4h ago
yup. it should be a supermajority and minimum 60% turnout in order to be binding.
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u/jamzzz 6h ago
It only took 34 votes for the whole population of Québec to be forced to join the confederation. 50%+1 of the population is more than enough to decide to leave.
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u/GenericFatGuy Manitoba 6h ago
The people who live in Québec now are not the same people who voted to join the confederation. A shitty system of voting from 160 years ago is not justification for using a shitty system now.
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u/jamzzz 6h ago
The people who live in Québec never got to vote to join the confederation.
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u/GenericFatGuy Manitoba 6h ago
Neither did in I Manitoba. Nobody who lives in the place they were born in had a choice to be there. That doesn't mean we should be having referendums all over the place to carve up countries on slim majorities.
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u/ausernamethatistoolo 6h ago
They require a "clear majority" 50%+1 is the least "clear" majority humanly possible.
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u/jamzzz 6h ago
Who’s "they"? Canada? Why would we listen to what Canada wants?
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u/ausernamethatistoolo 6h ago
Les Québécois c'est "they".
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u/jamzzz 6h ago
Ce ne sont pas les Québécois qui ont demandé d’avoir une majorité "claire" pour que le résultat des référendums de 1980 ou de 1995 soit valide. Les Québécois veulent que leur vote démocratique soit respecté. Ils voudraient aussi pouvoir vivre dans une vraie démocratie, dans laquelle ils ne seraient pas des sujets d’un roi outre-mer, dans laquelle ils pourraient choisir leur chef d’État, dans laquelle les pouvoirs exécutif et législatif ne seraient pas de facto dans les mains de la même personne, dans laquelle ils seraient souverains et non à la merci d’un peuple dominant qui les a toujours regardé de haut.
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u/ausernamethatistoolo 6h ago
On a déjà choisi deux fois et ça ruiné notre économie. On nous demande encore une fois de ruiner l'économie pour rien. La politique québécoise a déjà souffert depuis 40 ans sous la menace constante d'un référendum qu'une minorité veux. On a des choix de marde a chaque élection a cause de cette fantaisie qui monopolise l'attention politique.
La constitution lie la province whether you like it or not.
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u/Rationalinsanity1990 Halifax 6h ago
Maybe they'll remember the 90s and see the economic damage to Alberta post referendum, and back off.
1995 was the high water mark of the independence movement.
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u/dk1024 6h ago
I live in Montreal and I’ve been volunteering with a separatist party (but a different leftist one, called Québec Solidaire) and there’s almost no chance this referendum happens. The support for it is low and even PQ (the party in question) wants to delay the question as long as possible since they know there’s not a snowflake’s chance in hell this will pass given the current political climate. This article is just sensationalist bait because of PQ’s history
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u/diggthis 5h ago
Is a separatist.
Assures us there is no desire to separate.
Ok then.
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u/meh_whatev 5h ago
Well I’m not a separatist (I’m neutral on it) and can confirm there is no strong desire for separation currently.
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u/MacrosInHisSleep 3h ago edited 2h ago
All the parties this year are shit choices. You have the CAQ which is the right wing party that is currently in power, panders to bigots as part of their campaign and has been a fucking disaster. You have the PLQ that's a center right party wearing liberal clothing (they used to be center left) that changed it's stance to also pander to bigots. You have the PQ that's center left thats a seperatist party and has ALSO been pandering to bigots and then you have QS, that's left wing and is the most adament seperatist party, and is not pandering to bigots.
So the pendulum has swung from right to left. So voters who would otherwise have voted PLQ are splitting their votes into PQ and QS depending on how much they care about Bill 21 and Quebecs diplomatic office in Tel Aviv and how much they are afraid QS won't be able to handle the economic concerns and the ability to collapse CAQ.
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u/SirupyPieIX 3h ago edited 3h ago
You have the PLQ that's a center right party wearing liberal clothing (they used to be center left)
That was over 50 years ago, before their left wing split off to create the PQ.
So voters who would otherwise have voted PLQ are splitting their votes into PQ and QS
The PLQ's problem is that most of their non-anglo voter base migrated to the CAQ and the Conservatives. And a large portion of their anglo base did likewise. They no longer have this solid foundation to build on.
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u/MacrosInHisSleep 2h ago
You're right. I had thought it was a lot more recent. A lot of people still think it's left because it's called liberal.
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u/BONUSBOX Montréal 1h ago
polls have shown that a majority of QS voters would not vote to separate despite it being a party policy.
my justification is: worry about it later. every other party does it with the environment, so…
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u/mrpopenfresh 6h ago
The referendum seems to not be a consideration for many of the CAQ refugees coming to the PQ.
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u/TurboBruce 5h ago
Non-separatists are willing to vote for pq/qs because we all know that there is 0 chance of a referendum passing.
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u/SirupyPieIX 2h ago
There are even some federalists who don't mind a referendum specifically because it would be a decisive defeat for the independence movement.
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u/kawanero 6h ago
Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! 40 years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes! The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria!
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u/MightyHydrar 4h ago
Ok, maybe not an immediate referendum.
But most certainly doing everything they can to break up Canada, in cooperation with the US and the US-backed losers in Alberta.
Quebec will for the next couple of years block every federal initiative, demand ever more money, while openly, loudly, proudly working against the federal government. And then in a few years, turn around and shout about how "look how bad everything is, we need to leave".
Once PQ has won, expect that within the first week they'll have a side deal with the US on tariffs, and a big push about how the other provinces also need to work against Ottawas back.
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u/Ms_ankylosaurous 3h ago
How does Qyebecers feel about Smericsn overlords who won’t give a fuck about your culture. Because that is what separatism means right now
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u/Opposite-Cranberry76 7h ago edited 6h ago
And they turn out to be just as skeezy and maga-friendly as the Alberta separatists. Hopefully QB voters recognize this before they vote.
Edit:
The PQ leader says it he never asked for meeting with Trump's state department, but based on a leaked text message it seems like he's lying.
"PQ sought meeting with U.S. officials in Washington, State Department says"
https://montrealgazette.com/quebec-elections/pq-sought-meeting-with-u-s-officials-in-washington-state-department-says/
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u/FFBTheShow 7h ago
Doubtful, tbh. Last projections I saw had the PQ ahead by a few points. Im hoping that even with a PQ minority, the majority of folks will vote against separation.
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u/Opposite-Cranberry76 7h ago
Even having another referendum makes the country look like prey.
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u/FFBTheShow 6h ago
Oh, 100%. I just dont think that folks are really looking to separate. I think there is widespread support for the PQ's platform in general, and folks vote for them for the portion of that platform they support, not necessarily because they want to separate, despite that being part of their platform.
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u/MarioMCPQ 5h ago
Im from one of THE most separatist spot in Qc.
Relax: it’s not gonna happen. The PQ is not going to dk a referendum. And if so, which would be frkn stupid, it’s gonna fail.
Canada remains strong and united
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u/fredy31 7h ago
Is it haloween yet because the globe is propping up the spooks.
Yes, the pq is heavy favorites for tomorrow BUT
1- Its leader already announced as long as its stupid down south we dont have a referendum because it would be tinted just like alberta
And 2- even if he did, the subject seems pretty dead at 35-40% support.
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u/penetrativeLearning 6h ago
Cool. There's only a few good/sane countries left in the world. Lets break one of them up right?
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u/zebrasareneat 5h ago
It is insane how similar Alberta and Quebec are in many ways and yet they hate each other.
I’m albertan but I love Quebec.
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u/The_Kaurtz 4h ago
PQ is popular because they're populist right wing, people are absolutely not interested to separate, especially during the current conditions
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u/PandaEatPanda 7h ago edited 6h ago
Remember that PQ is anti-Alto/HSR https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/high-speed-train-pq-toronto-quebec-city-9.7228219
Without Montreal the whole HSR is economically unfeasible.