r/nbadiscussion • u/Glokk39Spaz • 13d ago
The Value of the Free Throw
It is no secret that the free throw is the most valuable shot in basketball. Just looking at it from a mathematical stand point, the PPS for a free throw is the highest.
| Shot Type | Average NBA Shooting % | Formula / Calculation | Expected Points Per Shot (PPS) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Throw (2-shot foul) | 78% | 0.78 × 2 points | 1.56 PPS |
| Rim / Layup / Dunk | 64% | 0.64 × 2 points | 1.28 PPS |
| Corner Three | 39% | 0.39 × 3 points | 1.17 PPS |
| Above-the-Break Three | 36% | 0.36 × 3 points | 1.08 PPS |
| Mid-Range Jumper | 41% | 0.41 × 2 points | 0.82 PPS |
Taking this further,
I graphed a couple different things and tried to find the correlation.
Pretty much on the X axis there is either Share of PTS From FT, Share of PTS from 3P, Share of PTS from Midranges, Share of PTS from RIM and then on the Y its ORAPM (3 YEARS)
For all of them, min. 1750 Minutes in the 2025-26 season, I can't upload pictures so here is the correlations.
Free Throws had the highest correlation (r = .34) (the people with most points coming from ft were Deni, Banchero, Harden, Book, AR, Keyonte George, Demar, Zion)
Share of Points from 3 v oRAPM 3 years had a r = -.07 (being completely one dimensional isn't good on offense)
Share of Points from Midrange v oRAPM had r = .24 (This one made sense to me just because the players taking a lot of midranges are stars that are allowed by their coaching, like Shai, KD, Book, etc
Share of Points from Rim v oRAPM had r = -.12 (This one is pretty surprising; I guess if your value only comes from cutting/easy layups and stuff its harder to be productive. Obviously, there are outliers with high share on the rim and high value)
Overall, I guess free throws are a good way to predict offensive impact. Getting fouled is very good for team success. Let me know what you guys think
12
u/Eastern_Antelope_832 12d ago
Gonna be pedantic for a moment and say that uncontested layups/dunks are the most valuable shot. That's why [insert your least favorite foul merchant] goes straight to the cup on a breakaway instead of letting the defenders back into the play and trying to get a cheap foul call.
4
u/Humblerbee 12d ago
Roughly ~1.8 PPS on those looks, you’re right that wide open looks at the rim are extremely valuable, but I’d argue that they’re just grading spots on the floor, not adding the layer of defender proximity- they already have shots at the rim as a totality.
2
u/ILoveLaggyInternet 9d ago
Putting a foul on a defender is worth potential more than a free layup/dunk.
Ex hack a shaq works until you have no bodies.
2
u/Statalyzer 9d ago
Hack a Shaq tactics are an extreme and rare example. Key players fouling out or playing fewer or less effective minutes is less rare, but still I don't think makes "getting fouled" superior to an uncontested dunk.
7
u/jbrunsonfan 13d ago
One thing I’m curious to learn more about is free throw fatigue for the refs. Like it’s no secret that guys like jimmy butler and SGA are masters at putting defenders in precarious positions and getting them to bite- forcing the refs to blow the whistle. But is there a way to attempt to project the upper bounds of this? I imagine if these two were on the same team, and the refs were letting two guys get 17ish free throws a game, that might impact the calls that their lesser known bench colleagues would get.
I have no way of proving this though.
6
u/Carnage_721 12d ago
thats simply impossible. theres only a certain amount of possessions per game, that have to be divided among an entire team of players. a player's usage will fall if there's other high usage players on the team already
2
u/Nebulaic_Rend 9d ago
I mean this is kinda already the case for OKC. As a fan, no one else besides Chet and SGA really gets a good whistle. Even then, Chet has to get mauled before getting a call.
JDub, as much and relentlessly as he attacks the basket, doesn’t get nearly the calls as he should. I do think there is something to this. Obviously there are per game/per series outliers, but overall I’ve seen a trend with this team at least specifically.
15
u/h---7470 12d ago
There's also a huge value in having great whistle.
Tyrese Maxey averaged 28.3/4.1/6.6 on 46/37/89 shooting, 53.6% eFG, 58.8% TS on 6 FT attempts a game.
Give him a call on two of his missed shots and these numbers turn into 32 points on 59% eFG and 67% TS, almost exact numbers Shai averaged last season.
Now imagine the efficiency of Curry or Jokic if they weren't averaging 5 and 6 FTA.
2
u/moltisanti6666 12d ago
I was like, haven’t I seen this [comment already](https://www.reddit.com/r/NBATalk/s/JWRddEtMaf)? Lol, your point is right tho.
2
3
u/No-Donkey-4117 12d ago
Adrian Dantley concurs. 8.7 FT attempts per game, shooting 81.8%.
Oscar Robertson, too: 8.8 FTA per game, shooting 83.8%.
And Jerry West: 9.4 FTA per game, shooting 81.4%.
And Joel Embiid: 9.9 FTA per game, shooting 83.0%.
2
u/IntensionalVoiD 12d ago
The math checks out, but I think the bigger takeaway is that free throws are valuable because they’re basically the NBA’s closest thing to a cheat code look how players tend to draw fouls. Then you got the no defender, no contest, no shot clock, just you and the consequences of your own shooting percentage. Getting to the line also forces defenses to play differently. That said, correlation isn’t causation, very great offensive players tend to draw fouls and score efficiently like i mentioned before.... The free throw isn’t making them great; being great makes the free throw valuable. And yes, Shaq is still somehow offended by this spreadsheet.
2
u/ChelseaDagger16 11d ago
I think the pattern is more about stars vs role players than shot location.
As you say, the middy is only shot by stars with a green light. I would add that it’s a bailout shot which are mostly taken by stars. Free throws are mostly won by high volume guys as you need the ball to win them, so it again points to stars.
Rim and 3P heavy players likely include a lot of role players who are effectively just finishing off a stars’ reads.
•
u/AutoModerator 13d ago
Hey, u/Glokk39Spaz, since you aren't on the r/nbadiscussion approved user list, your post has been filtered out to be reviewed by the mod team before it will post. If your posts are consistently approved, you will be added to the approved user list, bypassing the automod for future posts. This helps us ensure the quality of our sub remains high. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to the mod team.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.