r/geopolitics • u/John3262005 • 2d ago
News Saudis plan major offensive against the Houthis, but U.S. won't join for now
https://www.axios.com/2026/10/02/saudis-yemen-houthis-bab-al-mandeb-straitSaudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces are planning a major counteroffensive against Iran-backed Houthis in the coming days — an effort to push them away from areas on the Red Sea coast that control the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, two U.S. officials say.
For the second time in recent weeks, the U.S. rebuffed Saudi pleas to join the operation and conduct airstrikes. But U.S. officials say that could change if the operation runs into problems.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a vital artery for global trade and Saudi oil exports. Control over it gives the Houthis and their Iranian backer a powerful new point of leverage over the U.S., its Gulf allies and the world economy.
In recent weeks, the Houthis took over key areas of the southern Red Sea coast that control the strait. They also increased missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia. The Saudis retaliated with airstrikes against Houthi targets.
A U.S. official said the Saudis have been planning the operation for weeks and that plans were approved by Saudi leadership several days ago.
The operation will include ground forces loyal to the internationally recognized government in Yemen with Saudi air cover.
On Thursday, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid Bin Salman called Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to brief him on the planned operation and ask again for U.S. airstrikes against Houthi targets, the U.S. official said.
A U.S. official said that the U.S. "is not going to take kinetic action for now."
Last week, President Trump was close to ordering a strike on the Houthis after a request from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), but eventually decided to hold off.
Trump is caught between wanting to help his friend and ally MBS, and avoiding getting entangled in a new front in the Middle East.
The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) also had serious reservations about launching strikes in Yemen and saw it as a distraction from its focus on Iran, a U.S. official said.
U.S. officials say the U.S. military is helping the Saudis with everything short of direct combat, mainly intelligence and targeting data.
One U.S. official said that in the last two weeks, the U.S. military provided the Saudis with more than 200 Houthi targets to strike. The official said the strikes significantly increased pressure on the Houthis.
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u/John3262005 2d ago
For the second time in recent weeks, the U.S. rebuffed Saudi pleas to join the operation and conduct airstrikes. But U.S. officials say that could change if the operation runs into problems.<
The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) also had serious reservations about launching strikes in Yemen and saw it as a distraction from its focus on Iran, a U.S. official said.<
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u/Prestigious_Load1699 1d ago
At this point, why not aid them?
The Saudi military has proven itself largely incompetent, and noone besides Iran is going to care about knocking the Houthis down a notch or two.
The strategy of this war is utterly incoherent. This could be a relatively-minor but nonetheless important symbolic win for us and our Gulf allies.
Why abandon them now, Mr. President?
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u/EternalMayhem01 1d ago
Saudi Arabia rebuffed the US over Iran and now the U.S. is holding back while Saudi Arabia goes after the Houthis. The US is still providing intelligence, and other assistance, so it isn’t abandoning the Saudis really. As you say it maybe a symbolic and important win in Yemen, but the goal remains Iran, and the US may be looking for a greater Saudi commitment on Iran before it takes on any direct combat role in Yemen.
Imo the U.S. may have offered Saudi Arabia a trade already, more US involvement against the Houthis in exchange for greater Saudi cooperation with the US against Iran. But I would say Saudi Arabia has so far been unwilling to make that commitment, as they have demonstrated unwillingness the whole conflict so far.
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u/Prestigious_Load1699 1d ago
My issue is that the US took a direct combat role against the Houthis in 2023-2024 when they were disrupting trade in the region.
The idea that, while we’re engaged in a direct war with their benefactor, we refuse to assist is simply incoherent.
I see no strategy here. No well-thought-out plan. Just an ignorant administration winging it in the least comprehensible manner possible.
Take the easy win.
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u/Cheerful_Champion 1d ago
Because there's no strategy. They are punishing Saudi's for not getting directlt involved in Iran debacle. That's it. When you stop looking for a plan or sense in US actions under Trump and instead recognize them for what they do: bully, threaten and punish when others don't do what they want them to then it all makes sense.
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u/EternalMayhem01 1d ago
You can apply your criticism to Saudi Arabia as well. Saudi Arabia won't take the necessary action against Iran, even though Iran helped the Houthis in their recent offensive; Iran is helping with Houthi strikes inside Saudi Arabia with IRGC drone and missile experts on the ground in Yemen. If the Saudis wanted greater US support against the Houthis, they can offer greater support against Iran, which in geopolitics is a pretty fair trade.
If it is as easy of a win as you think, Saudi Arabia should be able to follow through by actually putting the coalition it is building up again to work. They again have US intelligence support and logistical support which they previously lost, and that was more than enough between 2015 and 2018 when the first Saudi coalition enjoyed its successes.
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u/Gain-Western 1d ago
Saudis only rebuffed the US though it is debatable to how much support is still given because US didn’t protect the Saudis against Iranian retaliation.
Part of it is the capacity issue as systems can be overwhelmed but a large part of the problem is that US prioritized Israel’s defense over all other Gulf allies when those said allies invest so much money in the US unlike Israel.
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u/Sageblue32 1d ago
We know the real reason is "what do I get out of it".
Putting that aside, the argument of taking the source of their funding out rather than waste time and resources on a side angle would have merit. Other issue is going to be political cost. US public is going to take the stance that we're getting drowned in ME conflicts again if we start spreading out into other states like Iraq and Yemin.
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u/Prestigious_Load1699 1d ago
The US was directly involved in fighting the Houthis in Yemen as recent as 2024.
Nobody cares about this relatively-minor theatre. There is no political cost to it.
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u/Sageblue32 1d ago
2024 had adults in the room and administrations measured in how they handled day to day military adventures.
2026 has fools and a media willing to blow up every misstep said fools make. It'd be very easy to make the link that Trump's ME folly is now spreading like wild fire and causing troop over extension.
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u/AndyTheSane 1d ago
At this rate we'll see the Saudi government toppled by the Houthis. That would be.. bad.
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u/SluggoRuns 1d ago
Lol what
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u/AndyTheSane 1d ago
Well, the odds are pretty low.. but if it did happen I'd have the satisfaction of looking like a genius while the world burned.
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u/Direlion 1d ago
The US and the Houthis have had a ceasefire since May 6th, 2025.
If the US attacks the Houthis, attacks will resume on US ships. That means the US only has about two meaningful safe routes to the theater of their war of aggression against Iran. The strait of Malacca or rounding Africa.
Interestingly, this was announced during an Oval Office visit by Mark Carney or Canada - the now mortal enemy of the US for some reason?
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u/Anibus9000 1d ago
The Saudis would lose on saudi the locals send their sons to be officers for a few years as it looks good with no military background as it looks good. There is no real hierarchy or order just nepotism and a generation of very pampered rich kids.
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u/itchslap 1d ago edited 1d ago
The issue is who the Saudis are trying to support in Yemen.
The Houthis have a cause, the Southern forces a have a cause, the supposedly international government of Yemen are all corrupted and would rather spend time in Riyadh living a luxury life than fight. Despite Saudi's showering then with money and equipment, it just ends up being sold or people getting salaries without actually existing. The only one who's probably different is Tariq Saleh and even he just withdrew his forces from the western coast when likely something happened between him and the Saudi's.
Saudis don't want to send any boots in the ground and they're literally backing up people who are using Saudi funding as a means and not a means to an end, so it's a losing battle. UAE had way better success than Saudis because they sent boots on the ground and supported a Southern successionist forces who had a cause dating back to the 50's. So the southerners fought ferociously and won against the Houthis, kicked them out of Aden and Bab Al Mandeb and then stopped because their cause was to liberate areas of Southern Yemen only. Then Saudi asked UAE to leave and all the gained they made just collapsed because Saudis just didn't want to support the southern successionist movement and would rather support corrupt politicians who claim they represent Yemen but who actually live in Riyadh and have actually never set foot in Yemen in years.
Now Saudis will do another air bombing campaign as if the last 17 years of bombing made a big difference and hope the international government of Yemen actually do some fighting an in the ground.
It's the same problem US faced in Afghanistan, where when US left all the Afghans the US spent so much money on just threw out their uniforms and fled, except just imagine US never deployed any troops to Afghanistan and just paid people there to fight the Taliban.