Unfortunately with Digger bombing so hard it will only make major studios even more averse to films that aren’t sequels, spin offs, or remakes. While It had so much going for it. Big budget and great cast, probably our biggest and most reliable movie star, an acclaimed director and tons of promotion. I think in retrospect the films fatal flaw was its concept was too obscure for a mass audience and intrigue of Cruise breaking type wasn’t enough of draw.

https://tiermaker.com/create/2027-box-office-predictions-tier-list-18899889 Updated the template to include some more movies, mainly international releases like The Bluey Movie and the Infinity Castle Sequel

Now with this in mind, some new analysis both on changed placements and new entries

Demon Slayer Movie: I think this could do insanely well. The IP is massively popular to the degree its movies have only seen enormous growth. While I don't quite see this one hitting a billion, I think it could actually get very close given the last movie did like 800 million. Anime has an enormous market now and I think these movies really show it.

Reassessing The Hunt for Gollum: I kind of second guessed my previous assessment and now I predict it might somewhat underperform. I don't think Lord of the Rings has nearly the IP horsepower it last had since the Hobbit movies. I think it really depends how they market this one, it COULD do well but it could also go very wrong imo.

The Bluey Movie: Ok, this pick might be controversial, but I think Bluey could vastly overperform. Why? Family audiences are huge money, and Bluey is absurdly popular with young kids who will take their families to go see it. Plus unlike Cocomelon, parents actually like Bluey. I only see massive profit for this movie. Very low risk project altogether tbh.

Reassessing A Minecraft Movie Squared: Given the reception of the last movie was certainly more from the gimmick of there being a Minecraft movie in a first place, this one might not carry the same appeal. Unless audiences like this one way more and consider it good, there will certainly be a drop-off similar to the Mario Movie vs the Mario Galaxy Movie.

Reassessing Narnia: Given this one was a Netflix release and those guys have very little confidence in the theater market, I don't see Narnia doing so hot. Though it has a more recent hotspot of an audience vs He Man so it might do better than Masters of the Universe did.

Reassessing SpaceBalls: During a time when the Star Wars IP is at an all time low in popularity and prestige, I doubt a satirical film mocking Star Wars is going to be very popular. Why? Because the constant jokes at the expense of Star Wars have certainly gotten old by now. And plus it's leeching off the popularity of a damaged brand.

So anyways, what do you think? I put a link to the template above so you can rank yourself.

Overall, this is going to be a highly prolific year for the film industry, whether that will be in a good way or not will be seen.

Though it still shows as #10 on The Numbers, Box Office Mojo shows that Drishyam: The Conclusion has placed eighth, thus putting The Odyssey in 11th. Unless this is a strange mistake (which I don't believe it is since Drishyam is currently playing and Bollywood sequels can put up decent numbers), Drishyam came in eighth and made $2.7M this weekend. Box Office Mojo isn't always right, but this might be a time that The Numbers is wrong.

Not only with the Endgame re release but Doomsday and Secret Wars will make 3 billion plus. James Cameron had the record for 25 years. For the rest of our lifetime, it will belong to the Russo’s/Kevin Feige

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Naza remains at the top of the charts . The documentary—a true indictment of Israel's crimes in Gaza—closes the day with €376,674 and an average of €1,061 in 355 theaters. In six days, Naza has grossed a staggering €2,614,289, with the €3 million it could reach today.

In second place is Heart of the Beast ; the intense survival movie starring Brad Pitt grossed €279,020 (down just 18% from seven days ago) with an average of €748 in 373 theaters (up from 361 seven days ago). Its total since September 24 is €1,882,117.

The thriller Verity dropped to third place with €239,823 and an average of €781 in 307 theaters. The film based on Colleen Hoover's bestseller earned €449,117 in its three-day total.

In fourth place is Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu's Digger . Yesterday, the film starring Tom Cruise grossed €197,488, averaging €411 in 481 theaters. Its three-day total is €363,875.

Fifth place goes to Avengers: Endgame Extra with €172,615 (-75%R) and an average of €551 in 313 theaters (371). The total for the re-release of the Marvel comic book film is €3,167,037; it surpassed the re-release of Avatar with €3,000,495.

Bollywood's most expensive two-parter, Ramayana, debuts in a month. With a reported budget nearing $500M combined for both movies, this is a project that's partially catering to Western audiences hoping for broad appeal as a global hit to attain profitability.

It's a little difficult for me to make an estimate due to multiple factors: being a religious film, lack of awareness from Western audiences, and a very muted marketing campaign.

That said, I'm guessing for OW (not including India): $9M DOM/$19M INT'L

Total: $20M DOM/$45M INT'L/$125M India = $190M

What is your domestic/international projection for the film?

Anne Hathaway has been having a great year after about a decade of disappointments. She's looking at $2.7B WW Box Office this year as a lead actress.

3 of her films debuted at # 1 - The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Odyssey, Verity. At least those three will be profitable in the theater. The End of Oak Street. That lost money but wasn't quite a flop as it should break even though the "streaming revenue" thing studios do where they pay themselves to stream their own movie. Verity's success is a small surprise. Her other film, Mother Mary, was a low budget A24 flick released on only 1000 screens at the start of the year.

It's a shame she doesn't have much coming out next year to see if her star power has returned in a sustainable way.

Avengers Doomsday - $2.6B. I’ve been underestimating this movie since its been announced but fuck it, it’s undeniably going to be huge. Spider-Man and Endgame Encore has proven that audiences still have confidence in the brand. The only reason I haven’t it higher is because I don’t think the movie will be as good as BND/Endgame. BUT if it is- the sky is the limit.

Dune Part 3: $700M. I see this matching Part 2. May not get as good WOM, but it will leg out well during the holidays, even with Doomsday competition. I trust Villeneuve to deliver.

The Hunger Games SOTR: $500M, expecting an increase from Ballads, this would be a solid result. Won’t match the Jennifer Lawrence films but no one expects it to.

Jumanji: $400M, maybe I’m underestimating, but I don’t think this genre of movie ages well in the 2020’s. Jumanji has run its’ course, the Rock and Hart aren’t the draws they used to be, the comedy is outdated, and the December competition is too strong.

Hexed - $200M, audiences aren’t interested in original animated films, especially generic ones that look like this… This is going to be another Wish.

Thoughts??

With Digger capping off a 103-year run for Warner Bros. as a major studio, and for Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy, this is a tribute post to Warner Bros. and its leaders Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy.

In 2022, David Zaslav had just took over Warner Bros. and wanted a big film executive to run the movie side. Toby Emmerich was leading the division, and Zaslav had not been impressed with their 2021 slate (minus the Legendary co-productions and Conjuring 3) because of Project Popcorn. Furthermore, Jason Kilar ruined talent relationships such as Christopher Nolan and Village Roadshow, the latter which went bankrupt in 2025 and Nolan decamped to Universal, where he has his highest-grossing movie and Universal too with The Odyssey.

So when De Luca and Abdy left MGM in 2022, Zaslav saw an opportunity. He wanted a Disney-like structure where DC would report to him, but every other film division would report to De Luca and Abdy. Not long after, De Luca and Abdy were hired on the spot that same year. During the process, Zaslav cancelled Batgirl and Scoob! Holiday Haunt much to the anger of talent, to the point that DC's Walter Hamada had to step down from his role after the release of Black Adam.

Their slate of movies didn't get going into production until early 2024 (because of the 2023 Hollywood strikes), but this is also when their slate was being kickstarted. During that transition period, they signed talent such as Jon M. Chu, Tom Cruise, LuckyChap, M. Night Shaymalan and more to film deals. Barbie became the studio's highest-grossing film ($636M/$1.447B). A few of these deals were set up at MGM during their tenture.

However in early 2025, they were on the firing list. After their first greenlight Joker: Folie á Deux failed, reports started to surface that Zaslav wanted to fire the duo as he wanted to shift to an IP-strategy. By the time, only a few of their greenlights had come out: The Watchers, Trap, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Joker 2 and Companion. Everyone knew that they were done for, but what we didn't know was that most of their slate hadn't come out yet.

Then A Minecraft Movie came out. It broke a record for the highest-grossing video game movie on opening weekend, the highest-grossing opening weekend of 2025 ($162.7M) and the biggest WB debut since Barbie in 2023. It was the highest-grossing movie of 2025 ($424.0M), until Zootopia 2 broke that record in January 2026.

Then more started to follow: Sinners legged out and surpassed every Marvel movie that year domestically, Final Destination: Bloodlines was the highest-grossing movie of the series, F1 did well, Superman was a promising start to the DCU, Weapons also legged out, The Conjuring: Last Rites had the biggest opening weekend for a Conjuring movie and One Battle After Another was the highest-grossing Paul Thomas Anderson movie, despite losing money.

For every risk they took, some of them paid off (Sinners, Weapons and One Battle After Another), while others didn't (Joker: Folie á Deux, The Bride! and Digger). And that's fine, because the first three were either box-office successes or won awards.

This past Oscar season, Warner Bros. won 11 awards (12 if you count theatrical distribution of F1), the most awards in a studio's history and also set a record 30 nominations also for a studio too. On the documentary 100 Years of Warner Bros., Zaslav's goal was to win Best Picture for a movie and accomplished that goal with One Battle After Another.

But also from 2025-2026, WB also set a new record: Setting nine straight number-one openings. That's not something Disney would even accomplish. Every single WB release from A Minecraft Movie to Wuthering Heights were number #1 on their opening weekends. That streak did end with The Bride! and ever since, only one WB movie (Practical Magic 2) has been number #1 on its opening weekend. Also, they were the first studio to have seven consecutive movies to open above $40 million in 2025 from A Minecraft Movie to The Conjuring: Last Rites. I doubt those records will be broken in the near future, unless Disney wants to challenge the latter record in the near future.

However 2026 was not impressive: Wuthering Heights was a success, Lee Cronin's The Mummy did well, Evil Dead Rise was a Sony production and even Mortal Kombat II eeked out to a small profit. But other than that, their remaining movies either underpeformed or bombed (The Bride!, They Will Kill You, Supergirl, The End of Oak Street, Practical Magic 2 and Digger). In fact, three of those (The Bride!, Supergirl and Digger) will rank along the biggest bombs of 2026. That's not a good sign.

But excluding the 2026 slate, De Luca and Abdy had a good run when it came to 2025, awards and box-office. However, I knew that their days were numbered when Paramount acquired Warner Bros. Discovery in February 2026, and from then: the game of speculation started to play, on whether they would stay or leave under Paramount. The latter happened, without David Ellison telling De Luca/Abdy until they found out in the press. That was a huge gut-puncher to them.

Besides for Superman: Man of Tomorrow, Animal Friends and Godzilla x Kong: Supernova (which the latter two were under Legendary), the entire 2027 slate was greenlighted by De Luca/Abdy and it'll be interesting to see how Skydance handles it all, considering their treatment of the Brian Robbins-regime projects at Paramount has not been the greatest. Some of their 2028 releases were greenlighted by De Luca/Abdy, while others will be greenlighted by Dana Goldberg and Josh Greenstein of Paramount.

It was a nice 103-year run, that capped out with a bunch of records in 2025-early 2026. But all good things must come to an end.....

It opened on October 2nd. Seems like Lionsgate had no faith in it…didn’t hear anything about its Box Office.

Has anyone seen it? Did Lionsgate just let it die? Possible Budget? There’s virtually no discussion about it anywhere.

The director Mike P. Nelson will also direct the next Saw installment for Lionsgate! So they must have been somewhat satisfied with this movie to give him the keys to their big horror franchise, which makes this small release even weirder…

It currently has a 55% on RT (higher than Digger and Verity). It also has a few positive posts on reddit that its a decently entertaining creature feature. No theatre near me shows it so I couldn’t go see it even if I wanted to.

For reference, the current top 10 is

1. The Marvels - $237M loss
   
2. Strange World - $197M loss
   
3. The Flash - $155M loss
   
4. Jungle Cruise - $150M loss
   
5. Desert Warrior - ~$149M loss (no official figure for this)
   
6. Joker 2 - $144.3M loss
   
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial Of Destiny - $143M loss
   
8. Mulan - $141M loss
   
9. Moonfall - $148M loss
   
10. Tron Ares - $132.7M

Where the film ends up is all based on whether Warner’s $125M figure or Variety’s $180M figure is correct, however it’s more than likely the latter due to the alleged extensive reshoots.

In that case, based on the $8M figure we just got and the fact that there is not a hope in hell for legs on this, best case scenario is that the movie ends up at ~$50M worldwide, which would entail a $200M+ loss, maybe not to the extent of The Marvels but definitely just above Strange World to enter that number 2 spot.

There’s been 18 $100 million dollar earners this year, there were only 20 last year. Does this year have a chance to top 25 in 2023 for the most $100 million dollar films in the 2020’s? I think there’s a slim chance to at least tie… any predictions from this sub or any films I’m missing?

Guarantees
- Doomsday
- Dune 3
- Jumanji
- Hunger Games

50/50 chance (depending on reception/WOM)
- Cat in the hat
- Ebenezer
- Focker in law

Long shot but not impossible
- Clayface
- Werwulf

2026 is producing some crazy numbers for 3 studios.

Sony has had by far their highest grossing movie ever with Spider-Man: Brand New Day at $2.5B, even if we take out 25%, which is the rumoured amount given to Disney (although we don't really know if it's from first dollar gross or the net, but this is basically worst case scenario), we are still talking a box office of $1.875B

Universal has ALSO had their highest grossing movie of all time in The Odyssey, the film has grossed $1.76B+, including a monstrous $534M+ just from IMAX alone, a staggering 30%+. Some doubted Nolan's box office draw, especially with the "woke agenda" surrounding this film, the lack of a Barbenheimer level event, and the aforementioned spider in the room opening 2 weeks later, but managing to gross $900M+ before that web was spun sealed that this wasn't just another blockbuster, this was an event unto itself. Also on a tangential note, Universal's Focus Features also had their highest grossing movie of all time in the, true to the sense of the word, phenomenal Obsession.

The big question mark hanging over all this is Disney / Marvel Studios' Avengers: Doomsday. Can this movie meat the box office expectation set up in by fans, Disney, Marvel, Hollywood and BND? Pre-sales all but indicate a insane opening is upon us, very well could top BND's domestic opening of $360M and Endgame's global opening of $1.2B. Quality is of course what will give the film legs, but when has the combo of Feige + Russos let us down. I would say at minimum we should expect BND's numbers, looking more semi-realistic semi-optimistic I would say the highest grossing movies of all time, which is currently Endgame once again, is very much on the cards. Meaning Doomsday yet again could ALSO be the highest grossing movie ever for it's studio.

Have all three studios having monster hits is, well, unprecedented, as I put it in this post, we've never seen a top 3 be so gigantic. No less 2026 being the first year ever with 2 $2B films.

All this in contrast to the two, now wedded, for a lack of a better term failures of studios, at least as a couple of the "Majors".

Paramount has basically been absent this year, with really just Scary Movie and Scream 7 to their name, I doubt Street Fighter will breakout.

Warner Bros was going into this year on one of their highest of highs but it seemed that every time they just shit the bed. The fact that thus far they've only had ONE movie gross more than $200M WORLDWIDE! is insane. There's also the fact of us now having which of THREE movies is the biggest flop: The Bride!, Supergirl and Digger, doesn't help things. The only reprieve they could possibly have is Dune 3, but they decided the best place for it is up against an Avengers movies.

As said in the title, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, The Odyssey and Avengers: Doomsday each (most likely) will have grossed more than the entire slates of WB or Paramount. Heck it looks like BND will have grossed more than WB AND Paramount combined this year, let alone Doomsday.

I think its fairly easy to see on hindsight why certain movies flopped or maybe even see it coming a mile away based on the announced creative decisions or casting choices etc. But what films were you surprised that they flopped or imagine you were the execs and would have greenlit more or less the exact same decisions ( then get blamed for when it didnt even make back its budget)

The Avengers franchise UK track record
...Read article

Digger was co-produced and co-financed by Legendary Pictures and Warner Bros. Pictures. We don't know the exactly percentage ownership by the two.

180 mil budget

100 mil worldwide marketing

= 280 mil total cost

Revenue: 45% of the worldwide boxoffice of $80 mil = $36 million

streaming/digital sales / blu-ray etc...revenue = $24 mil

total revenue: $36mil + $24 mil = $60 million

$60 mil revenue - $280 mil cost = $220 million LOSS