r/Torontobluejays • u/jvandy59 • 1d ago

[Steinmetz] Three Trade Targets Who Could Address Blue Jays' Biggest Problem

https://www.si.com/mlb/bluejays/onsi/three-trade-targets-who-could-address-blue-jays-biggest-problem
100 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

52 comments sorted by

67

u/mrdannyg21 1d ago edited 1d ago

Very lazy to say the Jays biggest problem is lack of power. Yes, it’s a problem, but look at the top-10 teams in homers this year, and their finish in total runs in brackets:

Astros (13th)
Yankees (9th)
Cubs (1st)
Reds (27th)
White Sox (5th)
Washington (3rd)
Atlanta (8th)
Dodgers (4th)
Mets (20th)
Baltimore (17th)

Some good offensive teams…obviously homers are good! A positive but not super strong correlation.

Now let’s do the same for OBP:

Milwaukee (2nd)
Cubs (1st)
Dodgers (4th)
Pirates (6th)
TB (12th)
Miami (18th)
Colorado (7th)
Washington (3rd)
White Sox (5th)
Detroit (14th)

Much stronger correlation. Top 7 offensive teams rank among the top 9 in OBP. And this is backed up by basically every study ever, and has been very consistent for modern results for years. Power is great, but OBP is even better.

Obviously the Jays need some of everything…they were 30th in homers, 30th in runs and 25th in OBP (though only one point above 28th).

We need guys who get on base!

Fwiw, Sato, Suzuki and Arozarena all had their career highs in OBP in 2026, so it’s likely their numbers do come down a bit. But Sato ranked 3rd in the NPB while Arozarena and Suzuki were 9th and 18th in MLB respectively. So they’re all still great guys to target!

39

u/LeviStubbsFanClub 1d ago

On eye test alone, the 2026 Jays were not as patient at the plate as the previous year.  

22

u/mrdannyg21 1d ago

You’re not wrong! 2025 Jays were 13th in walks, 2026 Jays were 29th. Some of that is Kirk missing half the season and Vlad’s bumbers down. Mostly it is Ernie and Gimenez, who ranked dead last in walk rate among qualified batters. 134th and 135th out of 135.

Our best qualified hitters funnily enough were right down the median, with Okamoto and Vlad ranking 67th and 68th. (Kirk would’ve slotted around 50th if he qualified)

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u/GreenEggsSteamedHams I'm Not Going to Not Eat a Cinnamon Roll 1d ago

Vlad's bumbers were indeed down. Appropriate 😁

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u/mrdannyg21 1d ago

lol I normally correct typos but leaving that one

1

u/Khawk20 2h ago

As you should, it’s very appropriate.

5

u/LeviStubbsFanClub 1d ago

It just seemed to stick out this year.  Jays didn’t seem to get starters up in the pitch count and didn’t seem to get to the other team’s bull pen like the previous year.  And then of course, we left a lot of guys stranded on base. 

5

u/StinkyWizzleteats17 1d ago

Lukes is another bad culprit. Yeah he sees a lot of pitches/"grinds out" ABs, but part of that is because he fouls off multiple ball fours in a AB way way too much.

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u/mrdannyg21 1d ago

I love Lukes but will never completely forgive him for fouling off ball 4 TWICE when a walk wins game 4 in the World Series 🤣

5

u/navenager 1d ago

It's tough too, cause he obviously doesn't want to strike out there, so he's just swinging for contact at anything remotely close. Like I get the mentality, but it does feel like Lukes doesn't have a great sense of the strike zone.

3

u/mrdannyg21 1d ago

I was losing it about that once and someone made a comment about how baseball players (and other professional athletes) are generally going to be people that err on the side of forcing an outcome since that is kind of a personality trait that goes along with being a world-class athlete. I think about that a lot, just how unnatural ‘taking a walk’ is to a baseball player and in particular in a high leverage situation.

2

u/Jumpy-Opposite-1195 20h ago

Lukes saved Kershaws legacy. 

2

u/MVP_Legend_87 17h ago

They significantly increased their chase rate on pitches out of the zone. Which is why they hit for a lot more weak contact and didn't walk as much. They were 4th in the majors in O-Swing % and 2nd in O-contact % which is an awful combo. Swung at too much off the plate and made way too much contact.

As a comparison they were 9th in O-Swing% last year and 1st in O-Contact% last year. So they made a lot of contact, but they didn't swing as much out of the zone.

6

u/Br-Ion 1d ago
  • 27th in walk rate (bad)
  • 2nd in strikeout rate (good)
  • 9th in batting average
  • 25th in on base percentage
  • 26th in slugging
  • 5th highest ground ball rate (bad)
  • 23rd in fly ball rate (lack of HRs)
  • 3rd in soft contact rate (bad)
  • 3rd in chase rate (bad)

They're not striking out, but not walking. They chase outside of the strike zone that sends the ball on the ground that turns into a double play.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/league?season=2026#statcastHitting Less chase => harder hit ball => more power (hopefully)

The Rays also play with a high contact strategy, but they chase less, hit the ball harder, and walk more. They're also faster.

3

u/mrdannyg21 1d ago

Great summary. If I had to pick one stat to improve upon, it wouldn’t be homers or even OBP, it would be chase rate. It contributes to everything…more walks, better contact, more deep counts (also leads to better pitches and more walks), knocking out pitchers earlier.

Obviously easier said than done!

3

u/Br-Ion 1d ago

And it's the team's average, so individually it could be all over the place. Ernie is not bringing up the average that high up all by himself. I'm sure each player's "problems" contributing to the offensive struggles are complicated

2

u/AuntCleo1997 1d ago

I think there's a domino effect to some of these. Chase rate, soft contact, OBP are closely related. When you're not winning, I would guess the chase rate goes up because you're anxious and trying to do more.

Not having Bo created an instability in the lineup. Bassitt gave the group cohesion. It was the intangibles that killed the numbers. 

1

u/Greensparow 1d ago

I think a huge part of the jays problem is mental, when they are doing well they will all take a walk (except Ernie, he is allergic to walks) and when they are willing to take a walk they chase less. BUT when it's not all clicking they all try to force it by chasing and just hoping any contact will work.

Basically they convince themselves that balls are just not dropping instead of looking for a good pitch to drive

4

u/Significant-Charge16 1d ago

I agree and it reminds me a bit about how we all roasted Ross Atkins for calling targeting home runs as 'low hanging fruit', despite it ending up accurate. When we think about what went right last year it wasn't necessarily home runs, but rather clutch hitting, moving runners over etc. The at-bats simply have to be better than they were this year.

2

u/Loud-Picture9110 1d ago

I still tend to think the Blue Jays biggest offensive issue is the lack of power. The Blue Jays absolutely need to improve on their extra base production as they were a team that was largely dependent on hitting with runners in scoring position as they produced little in the way of power production. Add in a healthy dose of doubles and home runs and suddenly the offense is far less dependent on the inconsistencies of hitting with runners on base which tends to come and go season to season.

0

u/mrdannyg21 1d ago

Well I disagree, but it’s also true that high homer hitters and good OBP hitters tend to go together.

2

u/MVP_Legend_87 17h ago edited 17h ago

Very lazy to say the Jays biggest problem is lack of power. Yes, it’s a problem, but look at the top-10 teams in homers this year, and their finish in total runs in brackets:

The Jays have a very clear lack of power. By this it is ISO, not just home runs. It has been an issue for years. And a team that has Clement, Gimenez, Bateman, Lukes, and Kirk is already starting 5 players below 135 ISO. Considering you don't know what you'll get from Santander or Barger, it absolutely is a problem. This is before we acknowledge the Jays have no speed either, so without power or speed they'll struggle to add runs. You might get 40 SBs from those 5 players, and considering you're getting no power that's a huge problem.

You haven't proven a correlation, as an aside.

Maybe you aren't aware, but the 3 things that translate best to playoff success is HRs, pitcher strikeouts, and defence. Home runs because you have limited opportunities to score and this is guaranteed runs. Strikeouts because it limits balls in play which lead to errors or moving runners over. And defence limits run scoring. There was an article showing this years ago, I wish I still had the article. So yeah, home runs matter more than you think.

We need guys who get on base!

You need players who hit for power and get on base. Remember in 2024 the Jays were 13th in OBP, but 23rd in runs scored. This is because they had no speed (27th in SBs and 28th in BsR), and 22nd in ISO. Getting on base matters, but if you're a station to station club you won't convert baserunners to runs. You need power, speed, or both, to drive runners in.

For example, Milwaukee doesn't have power, but they are a very fast team. They're 5th in SBs and 4th in BsR. That's why despite the low power they convert those baserunners into runs.

At the end of the day the Jays need significant upgrades to their offence. I'd prefer power, but some players with power and speed are essential. My preference would be to add 3 bats (2B, LF, DH) to give the Jays the depth they need.

3

u/a_sad_and_slow_handy 1d ago

Yeah but for the amount of double plays we into, just getting walks isn’t useful. It’s also not that we should only target home runs, it’s that after Okamoto, there was nothing.

5

u/mrdannyg21 1d ago

People really underestimate the value of getting on base, but you’re not completely wrong. Having poor speed and hitting lots of grounders does remove some of the benefits of walks. Only a fairly small portion of it though, even allowing that between Vlad, Kirk and others, we are a pretty big groundball team.

1

u/BigBangBoomerang 1d ago

OBP was basically how the Jays played last year. They played very good contact baseball to get guys on bases then bat them home. Their plate discipline went to shit this year.

10

u/gooddayokay 1d ago

“We need to get guys on base!”
You’re not kidding, 75 steals this year as well. 27th in the league. We also need guys once they’re on base to do something.

5

u/Ferivich Save 15% On Accessories 1d ago

Stealing bases is only useful around a 75% success rate without costing runs and a lot of our base runners don’t do that. So stealing isn’t super important but being better at going 1st to 3rd and things is something the team needs to be better at.

2

u/Br-Ion 23h ago

9th in batting average and 25th in on base percentage is wild. They're not walking, so rhey must be chasing too much

6

u/Simtricate 1d ago

I think both halves of the OPS formula are important to the Jays this offseason.

They didn’t get on base, and when they did, it was a lot of singles.

The team can absolutely use a slugger who can change more games with a single swing… which is a huge benefit when you get more guys on base.

Straw (Great fielder and runner),
Lukes (Good fielder and sees a lot of pitches),
Clement (very different outcomes this year)
Springer (Got better as the season went on)
Gimenez (Terrific fielder)
Guerrero (Well covered issue)
Varsho (for most of the year)
Sanchez (terrible fielder)
Schneider (only hits homers, just not very often)

All these guys had regular spots in the lineup and none of them got on base at all high enough clip, or hit enough doubles and home runs. Nine players were below average hitters. 3 had good years (Okamoto, Batemen, Kirk)… the lineup should be entirely reconsidered.

14

u/Zraknul 1d ago edited 1d ago

> 15 is a weird line.

If we said 15+, Jays have 2, Guardians jump to 4. Dodger's stay in the same place.

If we said > 17 the Dodger's drop from 7 to 4. Astros go from 6 to 5 and are better than the Dodgers, Cubs and Braves stay at 6!

If we say 14+ Yankees jump to 8, if we say > 19 Yankees drop to 1.

Just say the Jays were dead last in HR, because the Jays were dead last in HR.

3

u/Salt_Act1404 1d ago

That's just too much money for 33 year old Lindor. If Pittsburgh wants to trade us Cruz for that sign me up.

5

u/Jtabo 1d ago

No thanks on Cruz. Dudes a POS. Constant DUIs and killed 3 people.

-10

u/blottingbottle 1d ago

Who cares if he’s a POS. As long as he can help the Jays win more games than any other guy the Jays could get, he’s welcome.

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u/Jtabo 1d ago

So never should have cut Osuna? Lmfao lots of people care if he’s a POS. Including teammates, staff, fans, etc.

4

u/TraderJim99 1d ago

We’re not that down bad, I wouldn’t be a fan of that teammate either. Locker room chemistry is a thing, there’s other options without that baggage

3

u/CyanEsports 1d ago

This is an engagement bait/ragebait article. The first two player recs are Lindor and oniel Cruz. Pretty sure more time is spent talking about why they're shit rather than how they even help the Jays at all.

3

u/yourfamiliesfavorite 1d ago

I'm convinced SI believes that the Jays are meant to be a farm system for every other team in MLB. NONE of these trades make remote sense in any sense of the word.

2

u/Sauerkrautkid7 1d ago

Lets copy the rays who copied the jays

3

u/rvasko3 Doc’s Resplendent Neckbeard 1d ago

Stop posting articles from a fallen source that uses AI journalism, please.

This article is fucking terrible.

1

u/Which-Insurance-2274 1d ago

I'm not sure how that's going to help get rid of the injury witch it seems to hate our team.

-7

u/Slow-Raspberry-5133 1d ago

I thought the biggest problem was doomers /s

1

u/Cartz1337 1d ago

Nope, Jeff Hoffman

3

u/Borje021 1d ago

I'm upvoting on an assumption of sarcasm. Please let me know if you're sincere, so I can swap that.

1

u/Cartz1337 1d ago

It was sarcasm. The year end offensive stats closes the book on any indictments of the pitching being the major problem.

I’ve got a record of defending Hoffman. I don’t think he was bad, I think he was done in Toronto though. For the good of his mental health.

2

u/Borje021 1d ago

I stand by my upvote then. That shit is tough out here though. Tough to assume sarcasm with so many simpletons not understanding how excellent/unlucky he was.

-3

u/OG_anunoby3 1d ago

Vladdy for Ohtani, Yamamota and Cash considerations

-20

u/Kryantis 1d ago

Unless the trade target is somebody who can magically return Vladdy to his 2024/2025 form, then its not going to address their biggest problem.

-7

u/COV3RTSM 1d ago

The only guy that can do that is Bo

1

u/Loud-Picture9110 1d ago

How is Bo going to improve Vlad's approach, simplify his swing and improve his attack angle and launch angle? Unless you are suggesting that Bo is going to be hired as the team's new hitting coach or something I'm missing these improvements all need to come from Vlad himself.

-1

u/COV3RTSM 1d ago

Half this game is 45% mental. Maybe he just wants his buddy back