It's the El Niño being way too warm. It's breaking up hurricanes before they can form.
Happens with some El Niño events but this one is a rare one as it's still going strong into late September.
When the blob of heat is near the equator and happens around summer time, you get what we're seeing. When the blob of heat moves towards the poles around winter time, that's when you see all that polar vortex stuff starting to spill into the lower latitudes.
El Niño and the polar vortex are two different things, but when a large blob of heat moves into their area during the right time, it causes disruption to those events.
So you are right but not explaining why the heat sitting where it is actually effects Atlantic hurricanes. It's the Pacific jet stream being in a different path (in this current situation it actually split) and the wind shear it pushes into the Gulf/Atlantic region suffocates the atmosphere and it cannot develop the tropic waves that come from the African coast.
It’s because the hotter eastern equatorial pacific has more westerly winds moving towards South America which in turn results in significantly stronger wind shear aloft over the Atlantic basin. Wind shear is the death of tropical systems. They like low shear environments.
It is not the westbound winds causing the majority of the shear. The Pacific jet stream is extended and considerably farther south. The winds you are talking about are normal east to west winds. If the jet stream would have behaved "normally ” those westward winds would have been pushing storms into us.
If my research is correct it's not much more than normal and typically we would have still had multiple storms in September as it slows down significantly after about the 3rd week of August. Plus we usually have storms form right outside of the Gulf which are effected much less by the dust plumes.
Oh absolutely it does. A slowing AMOC is likely a big part of why this is a Super El Niño. If the trend continues we will see drastic and life altering climate changes and storms.
Okay so this is double sided. Yes, human factors that continue to contribute to climate change can have an effect on AMOC. Do I think it's the current cause? No, the Earth has cycles. This is part of that.
Side 2. If the AMOC was to slow too much, and or collapsed completely, it would completely alter the Earth's climates. The odds of that happening are low, however not zero.
I appreciate you saying that. I'm not an expert by any means but I have been fascinated by weather since I was a child. I'm from the Midwest originally and used to be one of those storm chasers lol. I moved to Louisiana years ago and have been "chasing/tracking" hurricanes and their patterns. Just a guy fascinated with mother natures destructive tendencies I guess.
Not really. Patterns aren't predictable anymore. The ocean temps might just continue to rise. Atmospheric carbon hasn't been this high in millions of years, so it's anyone's guess. Multiple systems are collapsing. Nothing will be "normal" ever again.
It won't. Humans are making damn sure tgat extinction happens to us last. It's so fucked. We are like cancer as a collective because a few assholes said that's how it has to be.
You are joking, but they actually might not. We are in a situation where several cascading effects compound. And those might not reverse anytime soon. Granted, a million years is a long time and we are currently still technically in the warm phase of an ice age. But if the albedo of the earth changes significantly and we have a change in the biosphere so that carbon isn't captured at the same rate anymore, the world might balance out at a much higher temperature than before. And that might last even longer than a few million years.
President Vance will be able to handle it.
Edit: Do the people down-voting me not know that is the reality of the situation? Trump will inevitably die in office. Either in this term or his "fourth" (He counts this as his third). At which point we have Jeff Dunham in charge. Trump is never going to leave office willingly. Even once his soul goes to hell those people up his ass are going to puppet his corpse for a while longer like they do with Mitch.
Usually yes. But with the skyrocketing price of deisel and no ammonia based fertilizers leaving the middle east. Add this to crop failure due to drought around the world and the shuttering of USAID a famine is all but guaranteed.
I just saw some yahoo columnist claim Al Gore was wrong about stuff because there have been no hurricanes to come this way in the Atlantic. Like … that’s not the whole planet!!! I deal with reading nonsense like this every time it’s cold in winter.
He was an activist on this issue, definitely not a scientist. But I think about guys such as Zack Labe who are climate scientists and share some unmistakable data. A lot of the “could” possibilities are coulds that would be huge if they happened, such as giant ice shelves breaking off.
The frog boiling bit in the movie was the best part. Most of what happens is that slow rise in water temperature. Thinking about climate shifts disrupting a ton of crops is not good thought.
A few things he said COULD happen. I can tell you that eventually those large ice shelves are going to break off. I don’t know when it will happen, but now we’ve got AI causing surges in power usage, and it’s not like it’s all non-carbon power.
I just got a notification about potential catastrophic effects from a hurricane in Hawaii. That’s how stuff like the myopic “well here it didn’t” gets me.
You ate correct I was thinking.of what's happening on the west coast of north America and just stupidly didnt think about that being the eastern pacific. The Eastern pacific and west coast of.north America they are called hurricans because its east of the dateline.
The western pacific this year isnt too kuch above normal. But the central pacific is abojt yo throw it third storm at Hawaii (they might get one a year) and the rest of the eastern pacific is going gangbusters (altough per the usual with little impact on land).
The water its warming into fall and probably winter too, is what made the arctic the arctic. Thats looking like its not happening this year. Its called a blue ocean event. And its quite bad.
Those two oscillations you're talking about are completely unrelated though. The PDO being warm and ENSO being warm have nothing to do with one another.
If I park a car on a train track and I park a car on the Highway, those are two different places and two different things are going to happen. But there's a common thread in that a park car is somewhere, where a parked car ought not be.
You did say that but I think the way you said it could be read in different ways. You said they were separate which could mean that they are different but the heat from one moved to the other or they way you intended. I don't think you mentioned where the heat came from that interacts with the vortex. Or I might be misunderstanding everything lol
Slow Atlantic hurricane seasons are common during el niño. Given that this one is exceptionally strong, it's not surprising that it's completely neutered it.
Zero hurricanes, sure. But fewer hurricanes during El Niño is normal. We just seem to be at zero right now. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been tropical storms. But they couldn’t develop into hurricanes. This El Niño is anything but normal since it’s one of the hottest on record.
No, this level of El Niño has happened 4 times since modern records have started. It might eclipse the record, hard to say right now, but it won’t be excessively stronger than what we’ve seen.
So you’re going against all models because of a hunch? In 1997 El Niño season there was only one major hurricane in the Atlantic with three small hurricanes out of 7 named tropical storms. The pacific will see an uptick during the El Niño but the Atlantic sees a decrease.
It doesn’t mean there won’t be any but it does mean a reduction. Zero happens sometimes. Even when it comes to sun spots per week during solar cycles (minimum and maximums).
Kind of yes actually. We can rule it out as the lone cause. But weather systems are incredibly complex and influenced by many systems. The El Niño state is one of those major systems, but it’s not the only one.
Well idk if I would phrase it as that since we do know what the El Niño causes that makes hurricanes harder to form. It’s more like it doesn’t always line up with other systems to completely prevent canes, and it doesn’t always line up in a way to not suppress canes. It can, but there’s no guarantee. What we do know is that it increases wind shear in areas hurricanes like to form, which is bad for hurricane formation.
Yes, but it's the first time in 112 years that this has happened. So either we haven't yet seen the condition that causes this, or this isn't the whole issue.
You’re assuming that enso is the only thing that controls hurricanes. For what reason I’m not sure but you probably should do some reading before participating in these kinds of debates
It’s not good at all. There’s still a fuckton of energy in the waters of the gulf and Atlantic, we’d usually have seen a lot of that dissipated into hurricanes by now. The nor’easter heading towards New England intensified quickly because of the warmer waters. Is this better or worse? Idk that’s very much to be seen, but my gut is it’s just going to translate to a different threat.
Supposedly, the El Nino does some fancy magic voodoo shit and now we are having hurricanes in the Pacific and not in the Atlantic. Months ago I heard a meteorologist downgrading the east coast risks for 2026 as soon as he saw the furry of this el niño.
Gemini:
An active El Niño pattern in 2026 has dramatically shifted tropical storm energy away from the Atlantic and supercharged hurricane activity across the Pacific.How El Niño Shifts the BalanceSuppressed Atlantic: El Niño causes strong vertical wind shear and higher-level westerly winds across the tropical Atlantic. This tears apart developing storms before they can organize, leaving the Atlantic historically quiet.Supercharged Pacific: Warmer ocean temperatures and low wind shear in the eastern and central Pacific provide ideal fuel for tropical systems, leading to a high volume of named storms, major hurricanes, and impacts near Hawaii and Mexico.Historic Intensity: According to updates from the Climate Prediction Center, this strong El Niño event carries a significant chance of reaching historic strength as it peaks through the winter
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u/Doctor_Saved 10d ago
It's good that there were no Atlantic hurricanes. Except now there's that "it's too quiet" feeling.