r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/PsychLegalMind • 1d ago
International Politics Brazilians are heading to the polls to decide whether they shift to the right or maintain the left. The less affluent tend to support Lula, the wealthier Bolsonaro. The country is divided. Can Lula ultimately prevail once again like he did in 2022?
Lula speaks of sovereignty and social services and independence while Bolsonaro capitalizes on his relationship with Trump and tackling crime. They each seem to have a base of voters and equally passionate. Some outlets are reporting that the race will likely go to round two because neither candidate will secure 50% plus to secure an outright win.
Can Lula ultimately prevail once again like he did in 2022?
Lula and Bolsonaro rally in Sao Paulo ahead of Brazil's crucial election | AP News
Brazil's Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro wrap up campaigns ahead of first-round vote | Reuters
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u/Hot-Recording-1915 19h ago
I’m Brazilian and this is turning like the last US elections, where it was almost unthinkable for people to imagine that Trump would win again, but he did.
Some weeks ago, it was also unthinkable to believe that Bolsonaro’s son could win, now polls show him and Lula practically even. A lot of scandals have came public involving Flavio Bolsonaro in past weeks, but somehow it seems to not affect his campaign.
Lula is far from perfect but at least with him we can have some sort of normality.
Unfortunately I’m expecting the worst.
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u/ragingbull10 15h ago
How it was unthinkable if he got the most votes ? U mean in the bubble you live not to the general population.
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u/Omatzus 15h ago
It was unthinkable because he had tried to overthrow the government a few years earlier...
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u/ragingbull10 15h ago edited 13h ago
Unthinkable to whom ?
And how did he try to overthrow the government ? He was the government .
After showing how he tried , what did it fail , who stopped him and why was he not prosecuted by the next government for it . Or it's just a political talking point you repeat
Edit: lol at the brain damaged redditors who when asked if they life in a bubble feel threatened
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u/Moccus 14h ago
He was prosecuted for it...
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u/ragingbull10 14h ago
What ? He was charged under 18 U.S.C. §2383, the federal rebellion/insurrection statute?
I missed that . And again how did he try to overthrow the government , when he was the government , and what stopped him
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u/markth_wi 11h ago
He directly benefited from trying to halt the electoral count for President Biden and had until January 8th absolutely refused to leave office if Biden was seated as President.
Had he refused President Biden could have held him indefinitely for insurrection in a military jail and mandatorily tried for sedition/insurrection and/or high treason and had that happened, he could be arrested and tried in a military court the punishment could have been his execution.
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u/Moccus 9h ago
Insurrection is forceful overthrow of the government. There are ways to overthrow the government that don't involve force. He was prosecuted for his attempts to mess with the election of the next president in an attempt to keep himself in power.
The president isn't the government. He's part of the government, and only temporarily. He can overthrow other parts of the government or illegally prevent a new government from taking over. It's known as an auto-coup, and there are plenty of examples of it happening worldwide.
He was stopped by his own VP and Congress not going along with his plan to stay in power. The best interpretation of January 6 was that it was an attempt to pressure Congress and Pence to throw the election to him and it got out of hand.
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u/nola_fan 7h ago
"And how did he try to overthrow the government?"
Well first he tried to get at least one Republican secretaryof state to fabricate the vote totals so that he would win in the swing state.
Then when they didn't work he tried to get Republicans in swing states to illegally name alternative slates of electors based on known false claims of election fraud.
Then he wanted the vice president to unconstitutionally recognize those electors as the legitimate ones so that he would officially win the electoral college that way. He also enlisted several members of Congress to assist in this unconstitutional scheme to steal the election.
Then when the vice president refused to go along with him, he and several far right violent militias organized a rally of the day Congress counted the electoral college votes and certified the election. At that rally he gave a speech telling the crowd that he would meet them at the Capitol where they would force Congress to re-elect him as president.
That crowd then violently broke into the Capitol threatening to murder the vice president and several members of Congress in a violent coup attempt.
During the coup attempt he refused to use any of the resources in his power to stop this crowd allegedly going acting against his will but instead tried to gain more votes for his false elector scheme.
So that's how he tried to overthrow the government. There are lots of live video and news reports and even an entire impeachment investigation that gives more details.
There's an investigation report into it and his theft classified material too, but a judge loyal to Trump has blocked it's release and barred anyone involved in the case from even talking about what's in it.
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u/steak_tartare 1d ago
Nothing will be defined tomorrow. There's a runoff later this month, and it's a toss between Lula and the son of Bolsonaro. I'm hoping for the best but expecting the worse.
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u/Flaky_History12 2h ago
I expect the worse. 2% voted for Renan Santos de Missão so those votes will most likely go to Bolsonaro. I am predicting that Lula gets stuck at around 47% in the second round. Unless some miracle happens and the voter turnout on the 25th is higher.
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u/No_Suspect7366 14h ago
I'm Indian and know very little about Brazilian politics but it seems so similar to politics in India
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u/Rezart_KLD 10h ago
Fascism is on the rise all over the world, on every continent*. Too many people have forgotten the reality, and now we're all in for a rough ride.
*well, maybe not Antartica
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u/Fruitcakei 1d ago
Woah, we can't just put this in here without talking about how Bolsonaro is a corrupt creep who the US government is tampering with Brazilian elections to place.
Guys, if you're gonna make bets about this or whatever you're really gonna have to do deep research into the candidates. Don't stop at their claims, find out what their opponents say about them and do some research to find out if those things are true. If you're not gonna be informed, get your nose out and tell the US government to do the same.
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u/airbear13 23h ago
Voting for Bolsonaro would be so fucking stupid but yeah, welcome to the Pinochet singularity where the country is doomed to long between far left and far right until it eventually loses its democracy and ends up in some crisis, not good
Hopefully one day they can find their way back to the glorious center and quit these divas
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u/Bitch_for_rent 11h ago
Centrism usually just goes right back to being dar right at the end of the day
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u/airbear13 8h ago
That’s the meme about them but it’s not based on reality. Centrists hate the far right, opposing extremists is kind of their whole thing. Im a centrist and I can promise you I never have been nor will I ever be far right, I have a fundamental beef with them.
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u/BBDAngelo 11h ago edited 10h ago
Brazilian here. OP, do you have any sources on the claim that “the less affluent tend to support Lula, the weathier Bolsonaro”? Like some researchers that came to this conclusion or something like that?
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u/Flaky_History12 2h ago
It's a lie. Lula won São Paulo city for example which is the economic center of Brazil. It's an ignorant and oversimplified statement
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u/JiggyWivIt 19h ago
Voting for Bolsonaro would be idiotic, but Lula should really have prepped and perked up a successor to take over rather than go for it himself at 80 years old.
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u/Typical_Response6444 16h ago
First brazil imitates January 6th and now the part where an 80 year old incumbent doesnt want to let go of power is running for election lolll
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u/Flaky_History12 2h ago
It's not that he doesn't want to let go of power. It's more that his two attempts at making successors became absolute failures. He basically messed up his succession plan and it's arguably too late for him to try it again.
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u/davida_usa 16h ago
This would never happen in the USA where an 80 year old president tries to run against a corrupt buffoon... oh wait, never mind SMH. At least Lula is clearly fit and seems to be mentally all there. Hope it turns out differently for Brazil than it did in the USA.
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u/dorballom09 16h ago
Bolsonaro, the guy who fled to USA after losing election? I want to be surprised but I'm not.
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